EUR/USD H1 Update

So far wave 5 is in three waves. One more needed.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-h1-update_5932.html

EUR/JPY M30 Update

So far, so good: wave 5 target area hit.
Anyway, looks like it is missing one more wave up...


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurjpy-m30-update_18.html

NASDAQ Futures H4 Update

Motive wave (i) in form of 5-3-5-3-5 Leading Diagonal looks like it is over.
Wave (ii) has bottomed on previous demand area.
Now we are in early stages of  impulsive wave (iii).

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/nasdaq-futures-h4-update_5468.html

GBP/USD H1 & Daily Update

Alternative target for wave 5 of 1 has been hit: it is SUPPLY are on Daily chart.
Please notice there might be one moew wave to the upside as the recent move is in three waves so far I guess.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/gbpusd-h1-update_3913.html

S&P500 H1 & H4 Update

Bearish count on S&P500 has been invalidated so the correction is not over just yet.
As far as I can count the most suitable labeling is presented below. In Elliott terminology it is called Mixed Uprising Three Complex Correction ( labeling is different on pic but the same idea).

The target for this last wave Z is  somewhere 1448 - 1450 area.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/s-h1-h4-update_18.html

Gold XAUUSD Daily Update

Just a re-labeling of my daily chart due to bullish count invalidation.

Please notice where is the ultimate wave 4 bottom area: 1539 - 1525.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/gold-xauusd-daily-update_18.html

GBP/JPY H1 Update

The Gap make a lot of confusion in the correct labeling attempts but I will try this one: I use to trat a gap as wave 3.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/gbpjpy-h1-update_18.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Is wave 4 in place?

Target is still 1.3280.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_18.html

EUR/AUD H1 & H4 Update

I have been expecting more downside pressure on this par mostly due to the sharp and sudden wave 2 progression but this wave developmant leaves no doubt about what is going on after all bearish levels have been invalidated.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/euraud-h1-h4-update_18.html

USD/CHF H4 Update

So,
It starts to  look like wave 3 in progress (or wave C).

Time will tell, but so far we got a resonable target for wave 5.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/usdchf-h4-update_18.html

Gold XAUUSD H4 Update

Impulsive bullish count has been invalidated, so bearish alternative count is in play.
Target for wave C is 55 min.

Take care,
Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/gold-xauusd-h4-update_18.html

EUR/USD M30 & H1 Update

Last Fib Time Cluster worked well as a resistance in time but price did not make new high and it looks like this clusters were just a general resistance/support levels in time because EUR/USD is still in narrow correction cycle.

I've decided to move wave 3 at the top of the spike because wave b seems to be out of place: too short and much of an impulse looking wave really. Anyway it is hard to say due to the gap. Default treatment of the gap for me is as an impulsive wave and this is why alt:5 label is there on the top as well.

Nevertheless, I expect some kind of spike to the upside that I will treat as a wave 5 before some serious coorection will take place.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-h1-update_18.html

NASDAQ Futures H4 Update

Let's continue with this Leading Diagonal Wave 1 count and see where it gets us.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/nasdaq-futures-h4-update_18.html

Crude Oil H4 Update

The dominant cycle on Crude seems to work very well here. As per indication the top should be in place for wave 3 and 61%Fibo Ret level should't be breached.

Overall count is bearish but lack of implulsive development put this labeling into question if SUPPLY level is broken to the upside.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/crude-oil-h4-update_18.html

EUR/USD H1 Update

Fibo Cluster added. Might be usefull to target the wave 5 top.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-h1-update_18.html

DAX Futures H1 Update

Ending Diagonal wave 5 target hit @ 7655.

Is this it?

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/dax-futures-h1-update.html

GBP/USD H1 Update

Two levels to finish this wave 1: 61% or 100% Fibo Projection.

Both levels on chart.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/gbpusd-h1-update_18.html

USD/JPY H4 & Daily Update

This pair broke the upper SUPPLY level area but the latest wave might be just the begining of larger scale wave 5 extension (alt:1). It is hard to say right now because the openinig gap.

There is a technical level resistance area, WS1 and 61% Fibo Ret of last swing, all in one orange rectangle area of 82.82 - 83.03.

Take care,
Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/usdjpy-h4-daily-update.html

EUR/AUD H1 + H4 Update

This is tricki one: so far wave (b) of wave too retraced more than expected but it is still manageable and it strats too look like some kind of Irregular Flat correction.

This is why there are two count for this pair: H1  count is abc with wave c as double three correction
and H4 count that is a extended wave c in five waves correction.

So far not very much tradeable enviroment for a decent R/R ratio.



Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/euraud-h1-h4-update.html

S&P500 H1 & H4 Update

Looks like very simple wave 2 correction is done inc. another trend line test.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/s-h1-h4-update_17.html

EUR/JPY M30, H1 & Daily Update

Right now on M30 and H1 TF there are two counts with equal value - it is all where wave 4 or (4) has bottomed.

In both cases we got Running Flat wave 4 correction, one smaller degree one bigger degree.
Gap has been filled and that was excellent buying opportunity in aticipation of wave 5 to the upside to finish thge cycle.

On M30 chart any price movement belot 61% Fibo Ret  @ 107.94 will invalidate the blue bracket wave count for wave (4) and it will mean that the price had  made intermediate top.

On H1 the wave (4) has been done already and wave 3 is the top so far. The price might try to make one more wave up and that would be wave 5 od wave (5). Any movement below 109.91 will invalidate this count and will mean  that the top for wave (5)  is in place. Please notice that the price still might develop Ending Diagonal wave (5) but anything below 109.50 will make this kind of movement less likely and below 109.02 (low of wave (4)) even less probable.

I still think that higher degree correction is needed, potential target for correction is 108.50 - 108.10.

H4 is another way to count this wave progression, I call it  Ultra Bullish count.

Take care,
Seb

PS: More charts on the way.
 

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurjpy-m30-h1-daily-update.html

EUR/USD M30, H1, H4 Update

There are two count here: M30 and H1 charts. M30 has all the altermatove labeling on and I trat it as experimental (alt.) count to my main count on H1 - this one is already almost 2 weeks old and works perfectly.

So far the greatest problem in labeling the chart is the recent gap labeling - it can be either wave 5 to the upside or just wave b of a larger wave 4 triangle formation. Upside or downside breakout will clarify the situatin. Invalidation line on chart.


Take care,

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-h1-h4-update_17.html

EUR/USD H1 Update

Fibo Time Clusters  for possible wave 5 ending are located at 17thDec between 16:00 - 17:00 or 01:00 - 03:00.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-h1-update_17.html

GBP/USD H1 & H4 Update

If You just tried to trade my last signal in this pair - the Running Flat Possibility Area 1 - right now You should be 125pips in profit.

Right now I will count this as impulsive progression until proven otherwise.
The general idea is to buy the dips, like now: the pair might be soon  in wave 2 correction mode, we need one more push up to finish wave 5 I guess.

Please notice the bearish divergence as well.

More TPI to come.

Take care,
Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/gbpusd-h1-h4-update_17.html

DAX Futures H1 & H4 Update

Still Ending Diagonal mode.
Correction is comming soon.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/dax-futures-h1-h4-update.html

GBP/JPY H1 Update

After deeper consideration I have decided to re-label the count one degree higher and put wave 4 into the shape of Trangle corection - a little change to latest count.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/gbpjpy-h1-update_17.html

Pound/Euro rates continue to fall

Monday 17th December 2012

Good morning. As always for a Monday, today I'll take a look back at last weeks movements, and what may happen to exchange rates in the run up to Christmas. The Pound/Euro rate fell steadily last week, to it's lowest rate in nearly 7 months.

In this week’s Report: 

• UK’s AAA Credit Rating under threat 


• Pound/Euro rates continue to fall 


• Sterling Dollar remains near 2 month high 


• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates  

Sterling vs. Euro; 

Last week we saw sterling euro rates steadily decline on the back of several positive data releases from the Eurozone, coupled with negative data from the UK. In this week’s euro report we’ll look at what those releases mean and how they have affected the single currency and sterling. 

The main driving force behind the movements was due to a newly agreed plan to make the European Central Bank (ECB) the Chief Regulator of European banks. This in turn paves the way for direct recapitalisation of struggling Eurozone banks using funds from the €500 billion European Stability Mechanism (ESM). 

The news that the ECB will regulating struggling European banks coupled with the possibility that the UK could have its credit rating downgraded from its prestigious AAA all helped the single currency gain ground on a now floundering pound , making the 4 and a half year highs of 1.2860 seen only a few months back seem a distant memory. 

Rates are now at their lowest in quite some time, and give or take a point, you have to go back to May to see rates significantly lower. This is great news for anybody looking to sell Euros, however anyone with a requirement to buy Euros should consider their options now to protect themselves against further falls in the rate. 

The Christmas period is expected to be just as volatile as we expect more news from the EU summit that took place last week along with the typically reduced trading that happens at this time which makes the market more sensitive to any data releases. 

If you are buying/selling Euros what should you do?

If you have a euro purchase in the near future a forward contract enables you to fix a rate of exchange today for anything up too two years into the future and remove and risk from the market, protecting you from any volatility and giving you one less worry over Christmas. Alternatively if you think rates will recover, consider a Stop Loss order.  

A stop loss enables you to place a trigger at a pre-agreed level in the market to give you a ‘worse case’ scenario. In this way you can still hope rates recover, but have a 'safety net' should they fall. 

This is also perfect for any euro sellers at the moment, who may well be riding the rates in the right direction, however should the UK not find its credit rating downgraded we can expect to see it regain some of the ground it has lost to the single currency over recent weeks. 

Either way you look at the market it is a difficult time to gauge any future movements, reinforcing the importance if having a good currency broker on your side. 

Why not contact me for a free consultation? In this way we can discuss all the options available to you, so you can make an informed decision on when to fix your rate and what type of contract to take. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry now.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates 

Monday – The only UK data of note today are the latest House Prices from Rightmove. IN the Eurozone, we have Trade Balance figures. In the USA there is a speech from the FED. 

Tuesday – Lots from the UK today including Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, Retail Price Index and a Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin. There is nothing of note from the Eurozone or USA today. 

Wednesday – Today we see the Bank of England minutes to the latest interest rate and QE decision. This could indicate future policy so will be closely watched by the markets. In the Eurozone we see Business Climate assessment from Germany, Industrial Orders from Italy, and EU wide construction output. In the States there are housing and Building numbers, and New Zealand releases its latest GDP numbers. 

Thursday – Retail Sales numbers from the UK today are a good barometer of overall economic activity. In the EU we have German inflation data, Italian Retail Sales and Trade Balance numbers. Over in the states we see GDP numbers, Inflation data, Home Sales and the latest manufacturing figures. 

 Friday – We end the week with a host of UK data: Consumer Confidence, GDP numbers, Public Sector borrowing and business investment figures. In the EU we will see German confidence and Import Prices, Italian Consumer Confidence, and a French Business Climate assessment. In the USA we have inflation data, Personal income numbers, and a consumer sentiment survey.
 

Getting the best exchange rates 

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. 

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day. 

 Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/12/poundeuro-rates-continue-to-fall.html