EUR/USD H1 Update

So far wave 5 is in three waves. One more needed.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-h1-update_5932.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Is wave 4 in place?

Target is still 1.3280.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_18.html

EUR/USD M30 & H1 Update

Last Fib Time Cluster worked well as a resistance in time but price did not make new high and it looks like this clusters were just a general resistance/support levels in time because EUR/USD is still in narrow correction cycle.

I've decided to move wave 3 at the top of the spike because wave b seems to be out of place: too short and much of an impulse looking wave really. Anyway it is hard to say due to the gap. Default treatment of the gap for me is as an impulsive wave and this is why alt:5 label is there on the top as well.

Nevertheless, I expect some kind of spike to the upside that I will treat as a wave 5 before some serious coorection will take place.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-h1-update_18.html

EUR/USD H1 Update

Fibo Cluster added. Might be usefull to target the wave 5 top.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-h1-update_18.html

EUR/USD M30, H1, H4 Update

There are two count here: M30 and H1 charts. M30 has all the altermatove labeling on and I trat it as experimental (alt.) count to my main count on H1 - this one is already almost 2 weeks old and works perfectly.

So far the greatest problem in labeling the chart is the recent gap labeling - it can be either wave 5 to the upside or just wave b of a larger wave 4 triangle formation. Upside or downside breakout will clarify the situatin. Invalidation line on chart.


Take care,

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-h1-h4-update_17.html

EUR/USD H1 Update

Fibo Time Clusters  for possible wave 5 ending are located at 17thDec between 16:00 - 17:00 or 01:00 - 03:00.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-h1-update_17.html

EUR/USD H1 Update

Again, I've been expecting one more wave to the downside before any rally might resumes but it looks like I missed something: yesterday evening I have labeled wave W and X expecting wave Y to come and finish the cycle of a little more complex wave 4 and this idea would fit the Rule of Alternation.
Altrought, today EUR/USD is at new local high so somewhere there I must have missed a wave. On the other hand it fits alt. count suggesting wave 1 has finished, wave W is first leg of Running Flat correction with very short wave C.
I went down to 5min to see what I did wrong. And it looks like I have missed the obvious: A Triangle wave 4!
There is one count of EUR/USD H1 that I have showed You guys at the begining of the week wuith only bullish option and this is update for it.
I guess wave 1 of this count will end in SUPPLY area, then EUR/USD will begin the correction.


Take care,
Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-h1-update.html

EUR/USD M30 & H1 Update

The H1 count is the one I'm in favour right now because the impulsive structure is very clear for me.
The M30 count just describes some probabilities as the caount changes when new pattern develops.

Wave B idea does not fit into this count anymore.
So, what's next according to H1 count? Correction. What do we do and why? We BUY the dips into Fibo, Technical Resistance or Pivot levels.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-h1-update.html

EUR/USD M30 Update: Very Interesting

Couple of different charts: Running Flat and Triangle.

Time will tell, but overall it looks bullish.


Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update-very-interesting.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

The latest wave up sode not look much impulsive.
We will try with this count.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_1518.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Nothing is clear yet, just watching EUR/USD.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_5586.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Looks like we are not finished with this wave up just yet.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_13.html

EUR/USD M30,H1 & H4 Update + TPI

Rationale:
Market is postioning ahead of FOMC. Beware that anything can happen on Wednesday like this.

So far, if You have followed my posts and had bought on the lows of 1.2900 and took profit into 1.3000 - good for You then, because right now the setup is not that clear really -  there are two options here:
(1) EUR/USD is in the impulsive wave now that might be the part of larger impulsive wave up . That means price will move very fast up if this is correct.  So far there are three waves up and now we are in wave 4 correction cycle. Price moved pass 50% level but did not touch 61% level and now it is decision time - anything above 61% is bullish and eyeig latest swing high.
(2) EUR/USD has finished the wave B of correction and hit the Fibo resistance and Weekly Resistance area. Break below 1.2962 will be first clue that new low might be comming.

Entry:
For Bulls: Buy  @ 1.2981 - 1.2974 (Agressive) SL: 1.2959    TP: Above 1.3010
                            More buy if price break through 1.3030 ( on retracements)
For Bears: Sell @ 1.2958  - 1.2950 (Agressive) SL:20 pips.    TP: Below 1.2875
                            More sell below Weekly Pivot ( on spikes or rallys)

Take care,
Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30h1-h4-update-tpi.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

I got rid of Ending Diagonal idea and one of the alternative count as this is full blown bull movement.

There is one thing that You should look at: AO and MACD Neagative Divergence but I guess that price will get to 1.3071 - 1.3075 Fibo and Supply level.

Take care,
Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_3122.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Told You so.

And I'm almost sure this alternative count is the right one.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_1517.html

EUR/USD: What's next?

This wave progression does not look to me like ABC Expanded Flat Corrective pattern anymore: sub-wave C wave is too much expanded in relation to other waves. It "looks" more like wave 3 to be honest and this means EUR/USD will make a new high after wave 4 retracement. This is one of the possible scenarions I had posted here on Saturday update.

With the last move up EUR/USD passed through supply level and has hit 88.6%Fibo Ret level to the pip. There is no divergence on MACD or AO what indicates the momentum is strong and the up cycle has not been finished yet.

The first level to look for buying opportunity is 1.3018 area of technical support, WR1 and 38%Fib Ret. Nevertheless, it is possible for price to penetrate 50% FibRet area and previous wave 4 area but anything below that level is rather more bearish than bullish.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-whats-next.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Price had stopped in between the levels on no man's land. That means the movement is not finished yet.

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_8385.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Maybe this?

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_5501.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

A ways to count Ending Diagonal...

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_12.html

EUR/USD M30 Update

Ending Diagonal anyone?

Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/eurusd-m30-update_761.html