GBP/EUR & GBP/USD forecast 2012/2013

Thursday 13th December 2012 

 Good afternoon everybody. In this afternoon’s post I’m going to take a detailed look at Pound/Euro rates, and the forecast for where rates may go in 2012 and 2013. I will also have a look Sterling/Dollar rates. 

I will also run over some of the options and contract types I can offer for any currency requirement you may have in the next 2 years, to help you get the best exchange rates and make the most of your currency. 

Pound/Euro stable in the mid €1.23’s 

 

The Sterling/Euro exchange rate has fallen slightly in recent weeks, but still remains firmly above the 1.20 mark. The reason for the fall is twofold, and will be familiar to regular readers as it’s been the main driver of exchange rates all year! 

Firstly we have the progress made in Europe, which the markets have taken to be positive. This has seen the Euro gain some strength and thus become more expensive to purchase. We also have the threat of the UK’s credit rating being downgraded, which has taken some steam out of the Pound. 

Some in the market are now saying that the euro could gain further support after the European Union agreed to make the European Central Bank the bloc's banking supervisor. This is positive news for the Eurozone, and so could pull rates down further. Of course things are so volatile in the Eurozone, it’s impossible to predict what will happen in the coming weeks. You can read about the new Bank rules here.

What UK news is affecting the Pound?

On the UK side, data has shown that British factory orders rose this month, although there was little reaction in the currency markets with the Pound remaining largely unaffected. Of more important to Sterling at the moment are growth prospects and credit ratings. 

In his recent autumn statement, George Osborne downgraded growth forecasts and said the country will miss debt-cutting goals. This has increased concerns the UK will lose its prized AAA credit rating. Only the UK and Germany retain good credit ratings from all major agencies. This could of course weigh on the Pound should we be downgraded. 

In my opinion however moves in the Pound/Euro rate will be driven more by developments in the euro zone in coming months rather than what will happen in the UK. Markets are waiting to see whether Spain will apply for aid, triggering the European Central Bank's bond-buying scheme that is seen as providing a backstop to peripheral debt markets. 

So which way will Pound/Euro rates go now?

In a nutshell, if things remain positive in Euros, GBP/EUR rates could fall. Should there be any unexpected deterioration of the situation in any of the troubled EU countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal or Greece, then we could see renewed weakness in the Euro, causing rates to climb again. 

Regardless of whether you are buying or selling Euros, simply sitting back and hoping the market will move in your direction invariably means you are simply chasing the market using hope as your only economic tool. A wiser strategy would be to use tools such as Stop Loss and Limit orders, so you can take control of your requirement and allow you to budget effectively for any requirement you may have in the coming months.

If you would like a free consultation on the types of contract we offer such as Stop Limit orders, then get in touch with me today. I can discuss your requirements, let you know all your options and give you my view on the current market forecasts. In this way you can make an informed decision on what to do and when to buy your currency. Simply leaving things to chance could cost you dearly. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry, and book your free telephone consultation now. 

Pound Dollar remains near 6 week high vs. US Dollar 

 

The Pound has recently been at a 6 month high vs. the US Dollar, however fell a little today during trading. Sterling pulled back somewhat because investors took some profits after the news that the FED has announced a new round of monetary stimulus, which was expected. 

Moving Forwards, rates I think will now remain above the .60 mark against the Dollar for the rest of the year, especially if we see hints that the Bank of England wills hold off from signalling further Quantitative Easing in the UK. 

If you need to buy US Dollars at the best exchange rates, there are 2 things you should consider. Firstly, you can fix the rate now while it’s so good, using either a Spot of Forward contract. A spot contract needs to be settled in full within 2 working days of booking your rate. A Forward contract allows you to fix the current rate for up to 2 years, and only lodge 10% of the total to be converted. The remaining 90% becomes due when you want to have your US Dollars transferred. 

A second option is if you think the rate will rise further. You can place a ‘Stop Loss’ order at a level slightly below the current rate. This means if the market drops, your currency is secured at that rate, protecting you from a further decline, and giving you a worst case scenario. The advantage of a Stop Loss is that if the market continues to rise, you can continue to take advantage of any gains, raising your stop level in line with market movements. 

Click here to send me an enquiry to find out more about these types of contracts. 

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/12/gbpeur-gbpusd-forecast-20122013.html

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast Outlook

Monday 10th December 2012

Good morning. Sterling Euro rates hit a 5 week low last week, before staging a slight recovery on Thursday and Friday. As always for a Monday, today I will take a look at what has moved the rates in the last week, and take a view on what the forecast for Pound/Euro exchange rates moving forwards. 

In today's report:

• Pound/Euro hits 5 week low before recovering on Friday


• Effect of budget statement on exchange rates


• Weakness after ECB speech pulls the rate higher again


• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro; 

With last week’s Autumn Statement and data releases you would have expected substantial movement on both sides of the channel, and some significant movement for the GBP/EUR cross. Unsurprisingly with the ever so unpredictable currency markets the pair remained range bound with a 1 week movement within 0.65%. This week’s report will look at what has affected the rates and why Sterling seems to have put a stop to the recent decline in rates and strengthening Euro. 

 

So what happened with rates last week?

Markets opened at €1.2331 last Monday with a raft of data from the Euro zone, UK and States; Sterling was seen as the best performer as with a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of 49.1 (predicted 48.0). Across the Chanel, the Euro zone scored 46.2 with Greece coming bottom of the pile at 41.8. Albeit positive news for the UK sentiment it didn’t actually affect the rates much as the GBP/EUR cross seemed to be awaiting the Autumn Statement from George Osborne on Wednesday with Interest rate and GDP figures out on Thursday. 

What effect did the Autumn statement have?

The Autumn Statement was announced Wednesday with changes in Income Tax, Tax Relief, Capital Spending and Welfare; with the most worrying aspect being that debt reduction targets were behind schedule. This lack of progress could indicate towards a future downgrade of Britain’s AAA rating which would hinder the UK’s ability to borrow at current levels reducing the value of the pound. This could also mean further Quantitative Easing for the UK, putting Sterling at risk somewhat. 

Euro weakness pushes the rate higher again

There was however some good news for the Pound/Euro rate on Thursday as President Mario Draghi said “economic weakness will persist next year”. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its growth forecasts and the Euro weakened as the mid-market moved up 0.5% within the space of an hour; further weakness continued through Friday as the Bundesbank slashed the 2013 German Growth Forecast from 1.6% to 0.4%. The Frankfurt based central bank did say it would recover to 1.9% in 2014. 

So from the 5 week low for the GBP/EUR cross, rates could come back up due to the weakness in the Euro zone. Alternatively, we could also see further Quantitative Easing (QE) out of the UK as debt reduction targets are behind schedule, and more stimulus might be required to help and bolster growth in the UK, potentially weakening Sterling. So the tug of war between Sterling and Euro continues, with no clear consensus on which direction things will go in the coming weeks and months. 

So what does this mean if you are looking to fix a rate or make the most out of your funds? 

If you are looking to purchase Euro’s at the moment, yes the rates have come down from the August High of €1.2878, but we're still looking pretty good at the €1.24 level. If you need to buy Euros, it's important to remember that at the end of last year you would have seen the mid-market nearer to €1.13. 

A typical purchase of €200,000 would now cost you over £15,000 less! Certainly if I needed Euros, I'd be happy to trade above €1.24 and would not want to risk losing out more should the UK have it's credit rating downgraded.

If you are looking to sell Euro’s and you are wary of the problems in the Euro zone or you are in the process of signing for a property a Forward Contract is a great tool for securing your price ready for completion. 

A Forward Contract takes the volatility out of the market and means you know exactly where you stand once you have completed either selling or buying a property abroad. 

Another option for Euro sellers is a Stop Loss order. This allows you to continue taking any gains, but should the market move against you, you can place an order to trade at a certain level, limiting any potential loss should the market go against you. 

To find out how Forward contracts operate, along with all the market contracts available to you hy not send me a free enquiry now. I can provide a free consultation on all the options available to you. 

Click here to send a free enquiry now.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates 

Monday – There is no UK data of note today. There is however a raft of data from the Eurozone including German Trade Balance and wholesale prices, Italian Industrial Output and GDP figures, Greek inflation data and Industrial production, in addition to an EU wide investor confidence Survey. 

Tuesday – Today we have UK House Price Balance from RICS. There is also a bond auction in the UK. In the Eurozone we have the German & EU wide ZEW survey on economic sentiment. Over in the United States we see Trade Balance numbers and wholesale inventories. Further afield, Australia has a consumer confidence survey. 

Wednesday – It’s all about unemployment in the UK today, as we will see the claimant count, unemployment levels and average earnings data. Later in the morning we have a speech by one of the BoE’s MPC members, so this could cause volatility for Sterling. In the Eurozone inflation is the order of the day, with the latest numbers from Germany and France. Over in the USA we will see Imports and Exports, an interest rate decision from the FED, the latest FOMC economic predictions and a budget statement. 

Thursday – Unusually quiet in the UK for a Thursday, with only a CBI industrial trends survey. In the Eurozone we will see inflation data for Spain and Italy, and also Greek unemployment and the ECB monthly report. There is also a European Council meeting which will discuss the debt crisis. In the states we have inflation, Retail Sales & Business inventories. 

Friday – We end the week with Services & Manufacturing PMI from Germany France and the whole EU. Over in the US we have a raft of inflation data in addition to Industrial production. There is nothing of note from the UK.
 

Getting the best exchange rates 

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. 

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/12/poundeuro-exchange-rate-forecast-outlook.html

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast December

Monday 3rd December 2012
Good morning everybody. It's a new month, and today I'll take my usual retrospective look at what happened last week, why the Pound/Euro rate fell, and what the month of December may hold in store for Exchange Rate forecasts for the best Pound/Euro exchange rates.

In this week’s Report: 

• Pound/Euro rates fall on Bailout news 


• New Governor for the Bank of England 


• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates 

Sterling vs. Euro; 

Pound/Euro rates dropped to a 5 week low on Friday last week, as the Euro gained further strength due to the fact progress has been made with bailouts for troubled EU countries such as Greece and Spain. The main cause for the strength was the approval of Greece’s next bailout payment, which was uncertain in the early part of last week. As you can see from the chart below, rates have been in decline for some time, which will cause concern for anybody needing to purchase Euros. 

 
Why has the Euro strengthened? 

The strength came as the German parliament has approved a Eurozone bailout payment of 44bn euros (£32bn; bn) for Greece by a large majority despite unease about the cost. Before Friday's vote, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned German MPs that the fate of the Eurozone was at stake in Greece, which has had two huge international bailouts in recent years. "A Greek bankruptcy could lead to the break-up of the single currency area," he said. 

Despite the fact that Greece's government had carried out reforms and passed a harsh austerity budget, the release of the next round of money was delayed for weeks by a disagreement between its lenders - the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Central Bank (ECB). The European Commission has set out a timetable for integration, including plans for a separate budget and joint issuance of debt. 

In the short term the commission's chief, Jose Manuel Barroso, envisages a new fund inside the EU budget to speed up structural reforms. The instrument - essentially a fund for struggling economies in the 17-nation currency bloc - would require governments to sign "contracts" similar to the strict conditions demanded for bailouts. Mr Barroso said: "We need a deep and genuine Economic and Monetary Union in order to overcome the crisis of confidence that is hurting our economies and our citizens' livelihoods." 

The news was welcomed by the markets, and the Euro gained strength as a result, causing it to become more expensive and pushing GBP/EUR rates lower. 

New BoE Governor announced, what could this mean for Sterling? 

In other news last week, the appointment of Mark Carney as the new Bank of England governor has been generally welcomed. However, with an expanded brief which includes overseeing the health of the country's banks, it will be a tough job. 

The first foreigner to be appointed Governor of the Bank of England in its 318-year history said he was “going to where the challenges are greatest”. He is currently the governor of the Bank of Canada, and will replace Sir Mervyn King next summer after the Chancellor decided against another British candidate for the role. 

Mr. Carney, 47, who had previously ruled himself out of the running for the governorship, is credited with helping to protect Canada from the global economic crisis. It is one of the few countries to have recovered fully from the financial meltdown. His appointment came as a surprise to City experts who had predicted that Paul Tucker, the deputy governor, would be promoted. 

What this means for the Pound is uncertain. Some say he is more of a ‘hawk’ than outgoing governor Mervyn King, who for some time has been talking the Pound down. However the challenges that Canada faced are very different to ours, mainly as the fact they avoided recession was due to the fact they are a commodities based currency. We will have to wait and see what his approach means, but in general the news has been welcomed by the markets. 

Summary for Pound/Euro rates 

We have seen rates fall for several weeks now, due to renewed strength in the Euro. Despite UK growth forecasts being revised up, Sterling is failing to make any gains against the Euro. Given there have been warnings the UK may head back to recession, there is every chance rates could continue to drop away, however if we get better growth figures this week, the Pound could make a recovery. 

Regardless whether you need to buy or sell Euros, contact us today to discuss the different options you have available to you. It’s free to have a consultation, and in this way you can find out how to protect against the rate moving against you, and make sure you are making the most of your currency. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry. 

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates 

Monday – It’s the start of a new month, and the first data release of note is UK House prices from the Halifax. We will also see some UK inflation data this morning. In the Eurozone we have various inflation numbers which could dictate future interest rate movements. Elsewhere we have US Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales, Inflation data and a speech from the FED. 

Tuesday – Today’s UK data comprises Retail Sales numbers and Construction figures. The EU wide inflation figures at 10am could affect GBP/EUR prices. From Canada we have an interest rate decision. 

Wednesday – We kick off with Australian GDP figures. Later in the morning we have another host of inflation numbers from the Eurozone, in addition to Retail Sales. The UK also releases some inflation figures. Over in the USA we have Mortgage applications, Employment numbers, Factory Orders and Inflation Data. 

Thursday – An important day for the UK today. At 09:30am we have Trade balance figures. Later in the morning we have the latest decision on Interest Rates and Quantitative Easing. Both of these have been key to Sterling’s weakness recently. EU data today comprises of French Unemployment numbers, EU wide GDP figures and the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. There are some Jobless numbers from the USA at 13:30pm and in the evening New Zealand announces its interest rate decision. 

Friday – We end the week with UK House Prices, Industrial & Manufacturing Production and the latest inflation numbers. There is also a GDP estimate in the afternoon that could affect the value of the Pound. In the EU we will see French Trade Balance data and German Industrial Production. Stateside we have Earnings data, Unemployment, Non-Farm Payrolls and a Consumer Sentiment Survey.

 

Getting the best exchange rates 

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. 

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.
 

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/12/poundeuro-exchange-rate-forecast.html

Pound/Euro forecast; rates could drop further

Monday 26th November 2012

Good morning. The Pound/Euro exchange rate fell quite a bit last week, and the forecast is for this to continue. This is partly due to events in Europe, but also due to the fact the Bank of England governor is speaking again this week, and could well talk the Pound down further. So what have I got for you in today's post?

 

In this week’s Report: 

• Pound/Euro rates in decline last week


• Bank of England speech this week could weaken Pound further 


• EU fails to resolve Greek/EU debt issues 


• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro; 

Pound/Euro rates last week were largely dominated by discussions between the IMF and EU Finance Ministers, over a €44 billion Greek bailout. The single currency strengthened considerably, due to the optimism of the aforementioned plan, but was clouded mid-week by continued disagreements between the two deciding factions. As you can see by the chart below, rates have been in decline now for a few weeks. 

Reports on Monday last week outlined that an agreement was expected the following day that would allow Greece to access the bailout monies allocated from December 5th. However, following a twelve hour meeting no solution to Greece’s debt problems could be met, prompting Christine Lagarde to say that the meeting had yielded progress but the technical details could not be ironed out. 

The euro, which had been steadily strengthening due to the meeting’s publicity, retraced part of its gains as speculators were reminded that solving the region’s debt-crisis cannot be done by simply releasing bailout funds. 

What caused the Greek debt crisis?

 

The Greek crisis emanated from enormous borrowing which grew exponentially since joining the euro. Public spending soared after adopting the single currency; costs which were not offset through taxation, largely due to widespread tax evasion, making it impossible to balance the books. When the Global Financial Crisis occurred it wiped the foundations from Greece’s house of cards, and essentially made it impossible to repay their lenders due to the staggering debt-levels they had accumulated. 

The high emphasis on a Greek rescue stems from a fear of contagion. Contagion is the notion that if Greece were to default on their debts, a similar cycle of events could affect countries like Spain, Italy and Portugal. The cause is a result of the fear that these countries could follow Greece’s example and default on their obligations. 

Not only this, but the losses associated with a Greek default would significantly dampen Global liquidity; in a nutshell, when people are fearful and refuse to spend, economies become stagnant. Talks are on-going which for the GBP/EUR rate means that an agreement could see the rate drop further as the euro strengthens. However if there are more delays or compromise can be met, this could see the rate bounce back as the single currency will weaken. So things really could go both ways in the coming weeks. 

Mervyn King could talk the Pound even lower

One argument for rates dropping further, is a continuing weakness in Sterling. The Governor of the Bank of England is speaking on Thursday and is largely expected to pour cold water on Britain’s economic progress, as he did a few weeks ago. Many believe that this is an attempt to weaken the pound as a ploy to increase our competitiveness in the export market; as the EU is major trade partner. This comes despite some positive data from the UK which saw momentary retracements on the euro’s strength last week. 

How to protect against the rate dropping

If the euro is your currency of interest, send me a free enquiry and I can get in touch to discuss your options. If the Market appears to be moving against you, Forward Contracts and Stop Orders are great ways of protecting yourself from adverse Market movements. If the rates are going in your favour, Limit Orders allow you to set an optimistic level in the Market which can be automatically purchased, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. 

Send an enquiry now to find out how we can help you.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates 

Monday – The main data that could affect GBP/EUR rates today is from Germany. We have a host of data from Europe’s largest economy, including Retail Sales, Import Prices and a Consumer Confidence Survey. Staying in Europe, we also have the EcoFin meeting, which covers areas such as coordinated economic measures, budgetary policies, public finances, capital movements and financial markets. Elsewhere we have Trade Balance figures from New Zealand, and manufacturing data from the USA. 

Tuesday – An important day for the Pound, as we will have GDP figures, House Prices and Business Investment measures. There is nothing major from Europe, but across the pond we’ll see US House Prices, Consumer Confidence, and Speeches by various members of the Federal Reserve. 

Wednesday – Nothing from the UK today. We do have some German inflation figures along with Spanish Retail Sales. IN the USA we will see some further Home Sales data, which is a good barometer of overall economic health. 

Thursday – A fairly busy day today. Starting in the UK we have Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, and a Speech by the Bank of England governor Mervyn King. Be very mindful of this, as last time he spoke he talked the Pound down by a significant amount. It’s followed by a UK Financial Stability report. In Europe we will see Consumer Confidence, Economic Confidence, Industrial confidence along with German unemployment numbers. In the states we have Jobless Claims, Homes Sales and manufacturing numbers. 

Friday – The only UK data of note is consumer confidence and an inflation report. In the Eurozone we have Inflation numbers, unemployment numbers and Retail Sales. We end the week in the Americas with inflation numbers from the USA and GDP figures from Canada.
 

Getting the best exchange rates 

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. 

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day. 

 Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/11/poundeuro-forecast-rates-could-drop.html

Pound/Euro rates falling. December forecast

Wednesday 21st November 2012 

Good morning. In today’s post I’m going to look at the developments so far this week that have affected exchange rates, including the Bank of England minutes, UK public sector borrowing, The latest on the Greek bailout, and the downgrading of Frances Credit rating. Of course I will also take a view on how this could affect exchange rates in the coming weeks and months. Let’s start in the UK. 

Bank of England minutes 

This morning the Bank of England released the minutes from the latest decision to hold off any more Quantitative Easing (QE) and leave interest rates on hold.

There were no real surprises; only one member voted for QE, so the vote was split 8-1. 

This indicates there is less chance of further stimulus in December, however many think it’s only a matter of time before more funds are needed, so I think depending on economic figures, we could see further QE in January. If so, then expect the Pound to weaken if it starts to look more likely stimulus will be needed. The decision to leave interest rates at 0.5% was unanimous. 

Public Sector borrowing increases 

The Pound hasn’t fared very well this morning though, falling half a point so far from the open this morning. One reason is the news that the government borrowed much more than expected in October, reducing the chances that the UK will hit its deficit reduction target in 2012-13. 

UK public sector net borrowing hit £8.6bn in October, which is a blow to the government as they were hoping that the deficit would fall by around 5%. At the moment this is moving in the wrong direction, and this is causing the Pound to lose out to other currencies, pulling exchange rates down. 

No Greek deal – what does this mean for Euro? 

Over in the Eurozone, the main concern continues to be Greece. They have failed to reach a deal to give Greece its latest bailout payment, and this threatens the whole bloc, leaders have said. Following nearly 12 hours of talks in Brussels, the Eurogroup said it needed more time for technical work. Greece needs the next tranche of its second bailout worth 130bn euros (6bn; £104bn) to avoid insolvency. 

The Eurozone "would be threatened if we did not reach" a deal, French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said, before adding that "we are very close to a deal." The news initially caused some weakness in the Euro, pushing exchange rates up slightly. 

These gains were short lived however, and rates have already dropped below the level we have been sat at for most of the week. The reason that a weak Euro is not really pushing up GBP/EUR rates is the fact that problems in the EU have a knock on effect on the UK, so even if more problems arise, don’t expect Pound/Euro rates to shoot up. 

French credit rating downgraded 

In a further blow to the EU, Moody's downgraded France's debt from Aaa to Aa1, and kept its negative outlook, meaning it could be cut again. Moody's blamed stalled economic growth, the risk of a Greek euro exit and the risk that France has to contribute to bailing out other Eurozone countries. This leaves only Germany and the UK with AAA credit ratings from all agencies, reflecting the health of the 2 large economies. 

So what does all this mean for exchange rates? 

Surprisingly it hasn’t really affected rates that much. Pound/Euro rates have been range-bound around the 1.24 to 1.2450 level for a while now, and the markets are not reacting too much to the latest news. The main driver continues to be investor confidence, and at the moment the UK is not performing too badly. 

What is a concern is the Bank of England’s determination to weaken the Pound to try to help our exports. Also, problems in the EU will affect the Pound, as I’ve already talked about in detail over the last week or two. 

If you need to buy Euros, consider a Forward contract 

I think it’s unlikely we will see any gains in the GBP/EUR rate any time soon, so if you need to buy Euros then consider a Forward contract. This is where you can fix today’s rates for up to 2 years, and only pay 10% of the Sterling now. The remainder would be due when you want to take delivery of your currency. 

In this way you can protect against adverse exchange rate movements and budget effectively for any purchase either soon or in the future.

Click here to send me a free enquiry now, and find out more about our commercial exchange rates.  

Getting the best exchange rates 

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. 

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.  

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/11/poundeuro-rates-falling-december.html

Pound/Euro forecast August/September 2012

Monday 20th August 2012
Good morning. So as usual for Monday mornings, here's my outline of what has been happening to the Pound/Euro rate in the last week, with a full analysis of what is causing the movements. In addition I will look at where rates may head in the coming weeks, and also list a run down of the weeks economic data that could affect rates.

In this week’s Report:

• Pound climbs to 2 week high against US Dollar
• Events in Eurozone continue to drive rates
• Thin trade in holiday season creating peaks and troughs
• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates

(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

After the excitement of the previous week and the comments made by Mario Draghi’ s and Mervin King - last week failed to produce any real excitement. The Pound broadly maintained its strength against the single currency, trading in a very narrow range throughout the duration of the week despite a number of important data releases made on both sides of the channel.













On Tuesday Sterling gained marginally over the Euro as UK inflation surprisingly rose for the month of July, whilst at the same time figures released showed that the Eurozone economy shrank in the second quarter of 2012. Although positive news for the UK economy the market didn’t react too much as the general view was that the Bank of England’s stance on monetary policy is unlikely to change any time soon, and therefore the results to a certain extent remain irrelevant for now.

The week continued in a similar fashion as the market showed indifference when, as expected on Wednesday, the Bank of England produced the minutes from the Interest rate setting meeting from the beginning of the month. This reported a 9-0 vote to keep interest rates on hold and no further Quantitative easing.

As surmised in previous reports, with UK rates firmly on hold and further QE off the table in the near term, Sterling is unlikely to play a dominant part in driving the cross for the time being. The focus is firmly set on the performance of the Eurozone. This was evident on Friday when the Pound began to lose some ground against the Euro following comments from the ECB and Angela Merkel of decisive action expected to reduce the borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.


So if the ECB take action could this lower GBP/EUR rates?

Any action by the ECB early next month to lower borrowing costs for Spain and Italy could well give the euro a lift against the Pound. But equally, now that they have outlaid an expectation, any lack of any bold action especially at a time when worries about Greece are resurfacing could send the euro lower across the board.

The status quo is likely to remain for the time being as markets remain quiet in part due to the holiday season. However there also seems to be somewhat of an undercurrent of disquiet as the problem in the Eurozone seems once again to be coming to the surface.

On the face of things the key members of the Eurozone are all singing from the same hymn sheet and claiming that they will do ‘whatever it takes for the euro to survive’ and thus far have managed to keep the markets subdued. However, cracks in the armour seem to be getting larger after Finland’s outspoken Foreign Minister last week claimed that the country was preparing for a ‘full blown currency crisis’ and the possibility of the Euro breaking up.

So it certainly looks like the EU debt crisis will continue to drive the Pound/Euro rate for the short to medium term. In uncertain times such as these, it's important to know your options and not just hope rates will go in your direction. Make sure you make the most of your currency, and use all the tools at your disposal to ensure that you maximise your position within the currency markets.

Contact me now for a free consultation.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Below we list the main economic data releases of the week. It should be noted that as August is the holiday season in much of the world and Europe in particular, we are very quiet indeed on the data front. This does not necessarily mean there won’t be movements in rates however. Often when trade is thin in quiet periods we see larger swings in exchange rates than usual so if you have an imminent exchange to make, contact us today to have a free consultation.

Monday – There is little data of note today. The only scheduled releases are Construction data from Europe and a report from the FED in the states about Economic Activity.

Tuesday – On the whole another very quiet day for data. The UK releases its latest Public Sector Borrowing data at 09:30am. In New Zealand we see the latest inflation report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Australia publishes its most recent Bank minutes. In the USA the FED gives a speech.

Wednesday –The only thing to watch out for is the FOMC minutes from the states that might affect GBP/USD rates.

Thursday – The markets have been saving all the data for today. UK: Mortgage Approvals & a CBI Trades Survey. EU: German GDP, German Imports & Exports, German, French & EU wide Inflation Data, EU wide investor confidence. US: Housing Prices, Homes Sales. New Zealand: Imports Exports & Trade Balance.

Friday – A little busier today with GDP figures from the UK in addition to a measure of business investment. In Europe the Greek and French leaders meet, which could mean an announcement about the Greek bailout. Over in the States we have durable goods orders.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/08/poundeuro-forecast-augustseptember-2012.html

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast

Tuesday 28th August 2012
Good morning. Today I'll take my usual retrospective view on what caused the Pound/Euro rates to drop away, and the events in the coming weeks that will dictate the direction of exchange rates and the Pound Sterling forecast in the coming months.

In this week’s Report:

• Pound/Euro rates decline as ECB poised to take action
• UK Economy didn’t shrink as much as thought
• Pound/Dollar rates hit 3 month high on QE threat
• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week we saw the single currency strengthen significantly, causing the pound euro rate to drop away. Trading opened Monday morning around the 1.2760 mark and steadily dropped throughout the week closing on Friday afternoon around 1.2630 as the graph below shows. In this week’s report we will look at the causes as to why the Euro has reached a two week high against Sterling, and what the coming weeks and months may have in store for the GBP/EUR rate.













Last week’s trading opened with sterling holding firm in the mid 1.27’s, relatively close to the best rates in 4 years. As is often the case though, spikes such as this are usually short lived. The great exchange rates didn’t last long, as expectation grew within the markets that the ECB will take action to ease Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.

The renewed expectations of some progress on the debt crisis saw investors pre-empting the ECB’s next move, and resulted in investors moving their funds from the safe haven of the Greenback and back into the single currency, giving it strength and pulling the exchange rate down. The possibility of ECB action came in tandem with the news that public net borrowing in the UK has increased unexpectedly, in a time where the UK government is continuing to make cuts, weakening the Pound.

It's not all bad news!

There was some good news for the UK however on Friday, when figures showed that the UK economy shrank by less than previously thought between April and June. Revised data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the economy contracted by 0.5% during the quarter, less than the 0.7% it announced last month. It didn’t have much of an effect on rates however, as many economists had expected the figures to show a smaller contraction and so for the most part, this was already priced in to rates, and was overshadowed by events in the Eurozone.

So what next for the Euro?

After a summer lull, the euro zone faces two months that will go a long way to dictate whether its debt crisis, now into a third year, will spiral out of control or finally be contained. The ECB appear to have temporarily stopped the rot and are now looking towards fast effective austerity measures.

In the next few weeks, we will see ECB inspectors travel to Athens to assess its debt cutting targets. There is also an ECB meeting where Mario Draghi will try to garner support for the Central Banks plan to bail out struggling economies, the ECOFIN meeting in Cyprus will see EU finance ministers thrash out plans to help Spain and Italy, and Spain will conduct an audit of its banks to see how much of the available bailout funds it will need. So, the future of the GBP/EUR rate hinges on what results from the above events.

What you can do if you need to buy or sell Euros.

With so much uncertainty over what will happen in the EU, the exchange rate could move significantly in either direction in the coming weeks. Due to this, many clients are choosing to remove any risk from the market and lock into a Forward Contract. This enables you to fix today’s exchange rates for up to 2 years into the future, allowing you to budget effectively, protecting against adverse exchange rate movements, and most of all give you peace of mind in a volatile and confusing market.

To discuss this and other options available to you, contact me now.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – UK Markets were closed for Bank Holiday, but there were some numbers from Germany showing Import Prices and Business Climate expectations. In a quiet market the figures had little effect on exchange rates.

Tuesday – UK Markets reopen but there are no data releases of note. In the Eurozone we will see German Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence, in Spain the latest GDP numbers are released. In the United States we will see Consumer Confidence and a Manufacturing Survey.

Wednesday – Relatively busy today. In the Eurozone we’ll see German Inflation Data, Italian Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence, Greek Inflation numbers and French Business Climate assessment. In the USA the Fed’s Beige Book looks at the current economic satiation, in addition to GDP numbers released at 13:30pm.

Thursday – In the UK today we have Mortgage Approvals, measures of Consumer Credit and Consumer confidence numbers. In the Eurozone we see German Employment figures, Consumer Confidence numbers from Spain and the whole EU, and EU wide measures of Consumer Confidence, Industrial Confidence and Economic sentiment. Stateside sees Jobless Claims.

Friday – A quiet end to the week. Spanish and Greek Retail Sales, Italian Unemployment and inflation numbers, EU Consumer Price Index. In the USA we have a Speech by the FED chairman and a measure of consumer sentiment.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/08/poundeuro-exchange-rate-forecast.html

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2012

Monday 10th September 2012
Good morning everybody. I'm back from sunny Kos in Greece, so let's get cracking and see what's been happening with exchange rates. In a nutshell, the Euro has been gaining strength and as a result Sterling/Euro exchange rates have fallen further from their recent highs. Today I'll take a look at what's been happening in Europe, why the Pound/Euro rate has fallen, and what the coming weeks may hold. If you need to buy or sell Euros at the best exchange rate, read on....

In this week’s Report:

• Euro gains strength pulling GBP/EUR rates down
• Is a solution to the debt crisis imminent?
• Pound/Dollar rates climb steadily to .60
• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro;

Speculators waited in anticipation last week as a relatively stable few days led up to Mario Draghi’s long awaited ECB press conference. Today I will consider the major announcements from both the UK and Euro-zone that drove the sterling-euro cross price since I've been away.


Last week began with a UK Manufacturing data report that was greater than predicted; lifting the pound as speculators concluded that the announcement would reduce the chance of more Bank of England stimulus. Sterling gains were offset, however, as on that day Angela Merkel stood before Bavarian beer drinkers to announce her support for a unified euro.

The inference of her speech appeared to be that the hard line taken with troubled Euro-nations, such as Greece, was ultimately to bring about an end to the crisis, rather than to simply protect German interests. The markets took the signal as an affirmation that a plan was on its way and this, coupled with a buoyed sterling, kept the markets relatively constant around the €1.26 level.













Just as the steam from Chancellor Merkel’s comments began to wane, and European stocks slipped again, Mario Draghi set the cat amongst the pigeons when he explained to lawmakers that if the ECB were to purchase two to three year sovereign debt from troubled nations, this was not tantamount to outright quantitative easing; a breach of their mandate.

All eyes fell on Draghi and Thursday’s announcement; the euro had tentatively held its ground, never quite weakening back to the four year high levels, but not quite strong enough to warrant the sterling-euro cross to fall below the 1.26 mark. Speculators were divided as to the fate of the euro; the broad strokes of the ECB plan were relatively well known by this point, what was not, were the details. Draghi could announce an insubstantial plan, such as capped bond purchases, that would disillusion markets in a similar vein to his prior press conference. A stronger message however, would settle investors, buoy the euro and reduce the dreaded bond yields of nations such as Spain.

Although the ECB President delivered with respect to content, Draghi’s speech was perhaps not the vitriolic call to arms many expected, or hoped, it would be. The markets did respond, albeit eventually, as an initial weakening of the Euro during the speech ultimately saw the single currency close in on two-month highs against the US dollar stealing momentum from the yen.

Friday delivered weaker than forecast Non-Farm payroll data from the US which will have driven speculators from the dollar to the euro as the ECB’s recent actions, and the risk of Fed stimulus, has seen more traders drop their risk-adverse positions on Europe. The news also caused GBP/USD rates to rise above the .60 level for the first time in quite a while.

With the euro increasingly gaining on its counterparts we have seen the Pound/Euro rate start to drop further away from the recent highs, on Friday falling over a point down towards €1.25. As such it has never been a better time to consider your currency options if you need to buy or sell Euros. We have a range of contracts to cater to many Forex requirements. Whether you are buying or selling Euros, we can provide you will all the information to help you make an informed decision and make the very most of your currency.

Make the first step now, click here to make a free enquiry.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – Today is all about the EU. We have various releases including Italian GDP data, Greek Inflation numbers, EU investor confidence, French Industrial Output and Portuguese Trade Balance. Elsewhere there are some House Price figures for the UK, and GDP figures for New Zealand.

Tuesday – Today we have some Trade Balance figures from the UK showing imports and exports. A little quieter in the Eurozone with German wholesale prices the only data of note. In the USA we have Trade Balance figures.

Wednesday – An important day for GBP/EUR. Starting at home we have a host of earnings and unemployment data at 09:30am. In the Eurozone we have Inflation data from Germany, Spain and France. There are also some industrial production figures for the EU. Over in the USA there are several Import and Export numbers being released at 13:30pm.

Thursday – The only UK data of note is the BoE Quarterly Bulletin. It’s relatively quiet in Europe also with only Greek unemployment and Italian inflation data. Most figures today are from the USA: Jobless Claims, Interest Rate decision, FOMC minutes & a monthly budget statement.

Friday – The G20 meeting starts today, which is a gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors and thus could add a new dimension to the currency markets. Scheduled releases today include EU inflation and unemployment numbers, US inflation and Retail Sales figures.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/09/poundeuro-exchange-rate-forecast-for.html

GBP/EUR & GBP/USD forecast September 2012

Thursday 13th September 2012
Good afternoon everybody. I'm posting a quick update on what's been happening so far this week with exchange rates. In a nutshell, it's not much! Sterling remains near a 4 month high vs the US Dollar, and is still just below €1.25 against the Euro. Let's take a quick look at each cross in turn:

Pound/US Dollar remains near 4 month high

Rates are looking pretty good for the Pound against the US Dollar, remaining around the .61 level. The reason for this is firstly more confidence in the Eurozone, which has meant investors leaving the safe haven Dollar. This in turn has weakened it slightly making it cheaper to buy.

The rate is also supported by expectations of more monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve which will be announced later this afternoon at 17:30pm. This has underpinned demand for perceived riskier currencies such as the Pound, and helped push rates up a little. Many analysts said the pound could rise further against the dollar if the Fed does relaunch its bond-buying programme, which tends to weigh on the dollar, but sterling was also vulnerable to the risk policymakers will hold fire.

All in all it's a good time to look at buying Dollars, given it's at a multi month high, and not very far away from the best it's been in a year.

Sterling/Euro remains flat in the €1.24's

In contrast to the good Pound/Dollar rate, Pound/Euro has fallen in recent weeks from the 4 year high we saw in the summer.

The single currency has been lifted by growing confidence in euro zone assets after Germany's Constitutional Court gave the green light to the region's new rescue fund and the European Central Bank's bold plans to lower borrowing costs for struggling countries.

This means investors are much more confident of the Eurozone being able to weather further financial storms and bailouts, and the Euro has strengthened accordingly. A stronger Euro is more expensive to buy, and that's why rates have fallen.

Over the last few days however the market has been very flat indeed, with hardly any movement in rates to note.

Tomorrow we have the G20 meeting starting, which is a gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors and thus could add a new dimension to the currency markets. Scheduled releases tomorrow also include EU inflation and unemployment numbers, US inflation and Retail Sales figures, so we could see a little movement then.

Also the FED's actions this evening could cause some movements in rates. Keep an eye on the Twitter feed in the sidebar, which I regularly update with the latest exchange rates to see how things are moving.

I'll be back on Monday morning with my usual detailed analysts of the Sterling/Euro rate and a full breakdown of next weeks economic data.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/09/gbpeur-gbpusd-forecast-september-2012.html

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast outlook

Monday 19th November 2012
Good morning. Another Monday morning, so let's take a retrospective look at what happened with exchange rates this week. In today's post I'll also look at some of the tools you can use to protect against exchange rates moving against you.


In this week’s Report: 

• Bank of England warns of triple dip recession


• Greek bailout casts shadow over Eurozone 


• US Dollar strengthens 


• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates 

Sterling vs. Euro; 

After a crazy week on Sterling/Euro last week, many people will be looking at this week a little unsure as to how their own requirements will play out. Many thought sterling would start to stretch its legs against the single currency as it started the week by pushing up to a 6 week high on the cross by Tuesday. 

This bullish run for the pound was, as often is these days, more of a dash than a marathon as BoE Governor Mervyn King poured his customary glass of icy water over the hopes of strong UK economic growth. By predicting that growth will follow a long and winding road, and saying there could be scope for further QE as it is only assessed every month and not forecasted; King and his MPC colleagues moved the market down over a point in a single trading session on Wednesday after their inflation report. 

It should come as no surprise that the pound fell on the back of Kings’ speech, as it is certainly not the first time. It is also no coincidence either; throughout the financial crisis a tenet of BoE policy has been to keep the pound weak to aid UK exports to both boost economic growth and support the UK’s payments deficit. We will find out even more detail from the central bank when they release their minutes of the last meeting, on Wednesday.

The effect of the Eurozone crisis on Pound/Euro rates

What Mervyn King cannot control however, is the performance of the much maligned Euro zone economy. Figures at the end of last week showed that the 17 nation currency area returned to recession and gave the weekly graph a kick in its tail with the rate forced up on Friday, just not quite as high as it got to on Tuesday. 

One of the reasons the rate did not drive further and may not do so is the closeness and interdependent nature of the UK and Euro zone economies. Although the Euro zone appears to be teetering on the edge of disaster and the UK has posted good growth for the last quarter, the short-term forecasts still do not expect a sustained sterling rally. 

Every bail out of sovereign states strengthens the Euro as investors take it as a signal of solidity in the euro zone and the threat of a Spanish bailout, an economy which dwarfs Greece’s, would potentially see a large swing in the Euros favour. 

How to protect against rates moving against you

So going forward, if you are looking to buy Euros you should consider placing a Stop Loss order.This is where you can instruct us to purchase your currency should it drop below a pre-agreed level. 

For example, if you have set your budget at 1.22 you can then take a bit of a gamble on rates getting better, but have a safety net in place should rates fall. This is a good way to approach the current market, as it means you don’t lose out on all the recent gains and can still trade at a reasonable level. 

Click here to find our more about our rates and service.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates 

Monday – Rightmove releases the latest UK House Prices this morning showing how that sector is performing. Eurozone data includes Italian Industrial Sales & EU wide construction output. We may also see news on Greeks latest bailout. Over in the United States we have House prices. 

Tuesday – There are no UK releases today. In the EU we have German inflation data and the EcoFin meeting. Further afield we have the latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia. 

Wednesday – Quite an important day for the UK as we have the BoE minutes from the latest MPC meeting, which will show the discussions regarding Quantitative Easing. There are no EU releases of note. USA data today comprises of Jobless Claims, Mortgage Applications and a Consumer Sentiment survey. 

Thursday – Fairly quiet in the UK today with only a minor industrial trends survey being release. There is a host of inflation numbers from across Europe that could affect GBP/EUR rates however. There is also an EU consumer confidence survey. 

Friday – Mortgage approvals is the only notable release from the UK this morning. In the EU we have German GDP figures and a European Council meeting. There is nothing of note from the US.
 

Getting the best exchange rates 

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you. 

 It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

 Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/11/poundeuro-exchange-rate-forecast-outlook.html