Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2012

Monday 10th September 2012
Good morning everybody. I'm back from sunny Kos in Greece, so let's get cracking and see what's been happening with exchange rates. In a nutshell, the Euro has been gaining strength and as a result Sterling/Euro exchange rates have fallen further from their recent highs. Today I'll take a look at what's been happening in Europe, why the Pound/Euro rate has fallen, and what the coming weeks may hold. If you need to buy or sell Euros at the best exchange rate, read on....

In this week’s Report:

• Euro gains strength pulling GBP/EUR rates down
• Is a solution to the debt crisis imminent?
• Pound/Dollar rates climb steadily to .60
• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro;

Speculators waited in anticipation last week as a relatively stable few days led up to Mario Draghi’s long awaited ECB press conference. Today I will consider the major announcements from both the UK and Euro-zone that drove the sterling-euro cross price since I've been away.


Last week began with a UK Manufacturing data report that was greater than predicted; lifting the pound as speculators concluded that the announcement would reduce the chance of more Bank of England stimulus. Sterling gains were offset, however, as on that day Angela Merkel stood before Bavarian beer drinkers to announce her support for a unified euro.

The inference of her speech appeared to be that the hard line taken with troubled Euro-nations, such as Greece, was ultimately to bring about an end to the crisis, rather than to simply protect German interests. The markets took the signal as an affirmation that a plan was on its way and this, coupled with a buoyed sterling, kept the markets relatively constant around the €1.26 level.













Just as the steam from Chancellor Merkel’s comments began to wane, and European stocks slipped again, Mario Draghi set the cat amongst the pigeons when he explained to lawmakers that if the ECB were to purchase two to three year sovereign debt from troubled nations, this was not tantamount to outright quantitative easing; a breach of their mandate.

All eyes fell on Draghi and Thursday’s announcement; the euro had tentatively held its ground, never quite weakening back to the four year high levels, but not quite strong enough to warrant the sterling-euro cross to fall below the 1.26 mark. Speculators were divided as to the fate of the euro; the broad strokes of the ECB plan were relatively well known by this point, what was not, were the details. Draghi could announce an insubstantial plan, such as capped bond purchases, that would disillusion markets in a similar vein to his prior press conference. A stronger message however, would settle investors, buoy the euro and reduce the dreaded bond yields of nations such as Spain.

Although the ECB President delivered with respect to content, Draghi’s speech was perhaps not the vitriolic call to arms many expected, or hoped, it would be. The markets did respond, albeit eventually, as an initial weakening of the Euro during the speech ultimately saw the single currency close in on two-month highs against the US dollar stealing momentum from the yen.

Friday delivered weaker than forecast Non-Farm payroll data from the US which will have driven speculators from the dollar to the euro as the ECB’s recent actions, and the risk of Fed stimulus, has seen more traders drop their risk-adverse positions on Europe. The news also caused GBP/USD rates to rise above the .60 level for the first time in quite a while.

With the euro increasingly gaining on its counterparts we have seen the Pound/Euro rate start to drop further away from the recent highs, on Friday falling over a point down towards €1.25. As such it has never been a better time to consider your currency options if you need to buy or sell Euros. We have a range of contracts to cater to many Forex requirements. Whether you are buying or selling Euros, we can provide you will all the information to help you make an informed decision and make the very most of your currency.

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Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – Today is all about the EU. We have various releases including Italian GDP data, Greek Inflation numbers, EU investor confidence, French Industrial Output and Portuguese Trade Balance. Elsewhere there are some House Price figures for the UK, and GDP figures for New Zealand.

Tuesday – Today we have some Trade Balance figures from the UK showing imports and exports. A little quieter in the Eurozone with German wholesale prices the only data of note. In the USA we have Trade Balance figures.

Wednesday – An important day for GBP/EUR. Starting at home we have a host of earnings and unemployment data at 09:30am. In the Eurozone we have Inflation data from Germany, Spain and France. There are also some industrial production figures for the EU. Over in the USA there are several Import and Export numbers being released at 13:30pm.

Thursday – The only UK data of note is the BoE Quarterly Bulletin. It’s relatively quiet in Europe also with only Greek unemployment and Italian inflation data. Most figures today are from the USA: Jobless Claims, Interest Rate decision, FOMC minutes & a monthly budget statement.

Friday – The G20 meeting starts today, which is a gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors and thus could add a new dimension to the currency markets. Scheduled releases today include EU inflation and unemployment numbers, US inflation and Retail Sales figures.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

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Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/09/poundeuro-exchange-rate-forecast-for.html

GBP/EUR & GBP/USD forecast September 2012

Thursday 13th September 2012
Good afternoon everybody. I'm posting a quick update on what's been happening so far this week with exchange rates. In a nutshell, it's not much! Sterling remains near a 4 month high vs the US Dollar, and is still just below €1.25 against the Euro. Let's take a quick look at each cross in turn:

Pound/US Dollar remains near 4 month high

Rates are looking pretty good for the Pound against the US Dollar, remaining around the .61 level. The reason for this is firstly more confidence in the Eurozone, which has meant investors leaving the safe haven Dollar. This in turn has weakened it slightly making it cheaper to buy.

The rate is also supported by expectations of more monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve which will be announced later this afternoon at 17:30pm. This has underpinned demand for perceived riskier currencies such as the Pound, and helped push rates up a little. Many analysts said the pound could rise further against the dollar if the Fed does relaunch its bond-buying programme, which tends to weigh on the dollar, but sterling was also vulnerable to the risk policymakers will hold fire.

All in all it's a good time to look at buying Dollars, given it's at a multi month high, and not very far away from the best it's been in a year.

Sterling/Euro remains flat in the €1.24's

In contrast to the good Pound/Dollar rate, Pound/Euro has fallen in recent weeks from the 4 year high we saw in the summer.

The single currency has been lifted by growing confidence in euro zone assets after Germany's Constitutional Court gave the green light to the region's new rescue fund and the European Central Bank's bold plans to lower borrowing costs for struggling countries.

This means investors are much more confident of the Eurozone being able to weather further financial storms and bailouts, and the Euro has strengthened accordingly. A stronger Euro is more expensive to buy, and that's why rates have fallen.

Over the last few days however the market has been very flat indeed, with hardly any movement in rates to note.

Tomorrow we have the G20 meeting starting, which is a gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors and thus could add a new dimension to the currency markets. Scheduled releases tomorrow also include EU inflation and unemployment numbers, US inflation and Retail Sales figures, so we could see a little movement then.

Also the FED's actions this evening could cause some movements in rates. Keep an eye on the Twitter feed in the sidebar, which I regularly update with the latest exchange rates to see how things are moving.

I'll be back on Monday morning with my usual detailed analysts of the Sterling/Euro rate and a full breakdown of next weeks economic data.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/09/gbpeur-gbpusd-forecast-september-2012.html

US dollar hits 5-day high against Icelandic krona, Wednesday, September 24, 2008 7:22:11 AM

During early European deals on Tuesday, the US dollar climbed to a 5-day high against the Icelandic krona. The dollar also showed strength against its Scandinavian counterparts.

Against the Swedish krona, the US dollar traded higher during early deals on Wednesday. At 5:30 am ET, the dollar-krona pair reached a high of 6.5855, compared to 6.5766 hit late New York Tuesday. The pair is currently trading at 6.5774.

The Swedish central bank and the Federal Reserve agreed today on a US billion swap facility in order to improve liquidity conditions in global financial markets. The swap facility will expire on January 30, 2009.

Sweden`s economic tendency indicator, which measures business and consumer confidence in the economy, rose marginally to 86.0 in September from 85.6 in August, results of the latest economic tendency survey released by the National Institute of Economic Research, or NIER, showed today.

Further, the survey found that confidence in the Swedish manufacturing sector continued to decrease in September. The corresponding indicator fell to minus 14 from minus 12 in August. In July, the indicator logged minus 11. The September reading was in line with the consensus forecast.

The confidence indicator for the Swedish industry as a whole declined to minus 2 from minus 1 in August and plus 4 in July. On the other hand, the consumer confidence index rose to minus 14.4 from minus 16.5, while economists were expecting the index to fell to minus 17.

The US currency that closed Tuesday`s North American session at 5.6157 against the Norwegian krone edged higher to 5.6239 at 3:55 am ET Wednesday. The dollar-krone is now worth 5.6115.

Against its Danish counterpart, the greenback showed strength during Wednesday`s early deals. At about 4:05 am ET, the pair reached 5.0972, compared to Tuesday`s closing value of 5.0938. The pair is currently quoted at 5.0850.

Denmark`s national statistics office said today that the consumer confidence index rose to minus 11.1 in September from minus 12.2 in August.

The US dollar traded higher against the Icelandic krona during today`s early deals. At 5:35 am ET, the dollar-krona pair hit a 5-day high of 95.49, compared to Tuesday`s North American session close of 94.67.

The Statistics Iceland announced that the Consumer Price Index or CPI rose 14% year-on-year in September, smaller than the 14.5% rise recorded in August, which was its fastest pace since June 1990. Economists had expected for an increase of 14.2%. This was the first decline in the annual inflation rate since January.

The greenback that closed yesterday`s New York deals at 3.4201 touched a low of 3.4083 against the Israeli shekel at 5:45 am ET Wednesday. The dollar-shekel pair is currently trading at 3.4143.

The US dollar largely bounced between 8.17 and 8.10 against the South African rand during Wednesday`s early deals. The dollar-rand pair that closed Tuesday`s deals at 8.2037 is now worth 8.1525.

In central bank action, the Norges Bank is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision at 8am Eastern Time.
The economic reports scheduled for release in the U.S. include existing home sales for August and MBA mortgage applications for September. Additionally, investors may focus on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke`s testimony at Congress` joint economic committee.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/us-dollar-hits-5-day-high-against.html

Dollar Advances Against Most East European Currencies, Wednesday, September 24, 2008 7:35:36 AM

The dollar advanced against the Czech koruna, Slovakian koruna and Polish Zloty during early deals on Wednesday. But the dollar weakened against the Turkish lira and the Hungarian forint, but moved range-bound versus the Estonian kroon

From US, the existing home sales report is scheduled at 10:00 am ET today. The US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke`s testimony at Congress`s Joint Economic Committee is also scheduled at 10:00 am ET.

The dollar climbed to a 2-day high of 16.5750 against the Czech koruna by about 7:00 am ET Wednesday. The pair was worth 16.4800 at Tuesday`s close.

Against its Turkish counterpart, the dollar showed weakness during Wednesday`s early deals. At about 3:10 am ET, the dollar-lira weakened to 1.2374, compared to Tuesday`s closing value of 1.2453. Thereafter, the dollar has gained slightly and is presently trading at 1.2423.

The Turkish statistical office, Turkstat said the Production Workers Index rose 0.6% year-on-year and stood at 85.8 in the second quarter from 86.2 recorded in the first quarter. In the first quarter, the number of production workers was up 1.7%. A year-ago, the index was up 2%.

Against the Hungarian forint, the dollar fell after rising to a 2-day high of 164.64 by about 4:05 am ET. Presently the pair is trading at 164.07, compared to Tuesday`s closing value of 164.76.

In economic news, the volume of retail sales in Hungary declined year-on-year in July, a report by the Hungarian Statistical Office said today.

Retail sales volume fell a calendar-adjusted 1.8% in July compared with a 1.9% decline in June. The sales volume at current prices increased to HUF 556.7 billion from HUF 535 billion in the previous month. On a monthly basis, retail sales declined a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.1% in July compared with a 0.3% fall in the previous month.

The US currency that was worth 20.6720 against the Slovakian koruna at yesterday`s close, hit as high as 20.6850 by about 7:00 am ET Wednesday.

The US dollar started ticking up against the Polish Zloty by about 2:45 am ET Wednesday. The dollar climbed from 2.2430 to 2.2697 by about 7:20 am ET. The pair was worth at 2.2607 Tuesday`s close.

The greenback largely moved sideways against the Estonian kroon during Wednesday`s early trading. The greenback largely bounced between 10.6850 and 10.6420, compared to 10.6470 hit late yesterday in New York. As of now, the pair is trading at 10.66.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/dollar-advances-against-most-east.html

US dollar weakens against Romanian Leu, Thursday, September 25, 2008 1:34:13 PM

The US currency weakened against its Romanian counterpart in late European deals on Thursday. The dollar-Leu pair declined to 2.5001 by about 7:05 am ET, compared to yesterday`s closing value of 2.5029.

Thursday, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided to maintain its monetary policy rate unchanged at 10.25% per annum. The decision matched economists` expectations.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/us-dollar-weakens-against-romanian-leu.html

US dollar eases from 2-day high versus South African rand, Thursday, September 25, 2008 1:56:26 PM

After hitting a 2-day high of 8.2153 by about 7:50 am ET, the US currency declined against the South African rand in New York deals on Thursday. The dollar-rand pair dropped to 8.0825 at about 10:35 am ET from Wednesday`s New York session close of 8.1733. As of now, the pair is trading at 8.1200.

The Statistics South Africa reported on Thursday that producer price index rose 19.1% in August, faster than the 18.9% increase in July, but slower than the 19.3% rise expected by analysts. Export prices rose 7.8%, while import prices increased 23%.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/us-dollar-eases-from-2-day-high-versus.html

Dollar Moves Higher Against Major Rivals, Thursday, September 25, 2008 1:58:46 PM

The U.S. dollar gained on other majors as the U.S. government`s bailout plan may be nearing a solution. The greenback moved away from monthly lows against the euro and sterling and also gained on the yen and franc.

The dollar surged in afternoon trading and hit a three-day high before easing back. The greenback touched as high as 1.4559 giving back some of the gains and moving to 1.4588. The GfK consumer climate survey found that the German consumer sentiment index for October increased to 1.8 points from September`s revised 1.6 points.

The greenback gained sharply against the sterling, hitting as high as 1.8304 in the mid-afternoon. The gain took the greenback away from the five-week low of 1.8668 it reached earlier in the morning.

The dollar gained on the yen, reaching 106.71 in the mid-afternoon, and also climbed to 1.0917 against the Swiss franc. The greenback was mildly lower at 1.0341 against the Canadian loonie.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/dollar-moves-higher-against-major.html

Greenback drops to 2-day low versus Brazilian real, Thursday, September 25, 2008 2:44:27 PM

The US dollar dropped against the Brazilian real during New York trading on Thursday. The greenback fell to a 2-day low of 1.8170 versus the real by about 2:30 pm ET from today`s high of 1.8655. The pair that closed yesterday`s deals at 1.8645 is now worth 1.8220.

The Brazilian Census Bureau (IBGE) reported Thursday that unemployment declined to 7.6 percent in August, compared to 8.1 percent in July.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/greenback-drops-to-2-day-low-versus.html

US dollar eases from 1-week high against Mexican peso, Thursday, September 25, 2008 3:26:12 PM

After hitting a 1-week high of 10.8615 by about 8:00 am ET, the US currency lost ground against its Mexican counterpart in New York afternoon deals on Thursday. Currently, the greenback is trading at 10.70 versus the Mexican peso, compared to Wednesday`s closing value of 10.8500.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/us-dollar-eases-from-1-week-high.html

Dollar weakens versus Chilean peso, Thursday, September 25, 2008 3:37:41 PM

During New York trading on Thursday, the US dollar weakened against the Chilean peso. The pair dropped to 537.05 by about 1:15 pm ET from early high of 541.50. Presently, the pair is trading at 537.28 from yesterday`s New York session close of 541.38. The pair had hit a multi-day high of 545.15 yesterday.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/dollar-weakens-versus-chilean-peso.html

US dollar pares recent gains against most majors, Thursday, September 25, 2008 4:12:35 PM

The US currency pared recent gains against most of its major counterparts during New York afternoon deals on Thursday. As of now, the greenback is trading near 1.4627 against the euro, 1.0898 versus the Swiss franc, 106.39 versus the Japanese yen, 1.8393 against the British pound and 0.8363 versus the Aussie.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/us-dollar-pares-recent-gains-against.html

Dollar weakens versus major Latin American currencies, Thursday, September 25, 2008 4:49:55 PM

The US currency weakened against its major Latin American counterparts during New York trading on Thursday after some significant economic reports were released during morning session turned out to be disappointing.

According to a report released today by the US Department of Commerce that new home sales fell 11.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000 units in August from the upwardly revised July rate of 520,000. The Commerce Department also said that durable goods orders fell 4.5% in August following a downwardly revised 0.8% increase in July.

The Department of Labor released that jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 493,000 from the previous week`s revised figure of 461,000.

The US dollar dropped against the Brazilian real during New York trading on Thursday. The greenback fell to a 2-day low of 1.8145 versus the real by about 3:25 pm ET from today`s high of 1.8655. The pair that closed yesterday`s deals at 1.8645 is now worth 1.8210.

The Brazilian Census Bureau (IBGE) reported Thursday that unemployment declined to 7.6 percent in August, compared to 8.1 percent in July.

After hitting a 1-week high of 10.8615 by about 8:00 am ET, the US currency lost ground against its Mexican counterpart in New York afternoon deals on Thursday. At about 3:25 pm ET, the pair slipped to 10.6975, compared to Wednesday`s closing value of 10.8500.Currently, the greenback is trading at 10.72 versus the Mexican peso.

During New York trading on Thursday, the US dollar weakened against the Chilean peso. The pair dropped to 537.05 by about 1:15 pm ET from early high of 541.50. Presently, the pair is trading at 537.28 from yesterday`s New York session close of 541.38. The pair had hit a multi-day high of 545.15 yesterday.

The dollar, which closed yesterday`s New York session at 2158.00 against the Colombian peso, dropped to 2077.50 in New York afternoon session today.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/dollar-weakens-versus-major-latin.html

The Swiss Franc: first thoughts following the SNB’s Euro peg of 1.20 on 6th September 2011.

 B. Hathi , 6th Spet 2011.

I have analysed the daily movement in Usd/Chf and there has never been roughly an 8% Chf weakening in history since its free flotation in 1971. From Fig 2 of the July article, we can see that the Chf has, at maximum, weakened about 4.5% in a day, so this move is by far the largest.


The most important question to us, including the SNB and the ECB, will be if this peg is sustainable. I did some ‘back of an envelope’ calculations. If, for whatever reason, the Eur/Usd were to move in both directions by 15%, then the peg should be sustainable. The reason I say this is the primary FX pair, the Usd/Chf will have to move between 0.75 (a strong franc) to 1.0 (an ‘ok’ Franc). If the Euro were to collapse versus the Usd to, say 1.0 level then the Chf will have to be at 1.20 versus the Usd – again a level that is not unimaginable from the past valuations. However this might cause an unpleasant spike in the local Swiss inflation as commodity and factory input costs rise fast. But that is a problem for, one hopes a distant future, i.e. when the SNB are forced to raise interest rates.



For another clue I looked at the BIS trade weights that show Switzerland’s trading exposure against various countries (and currencies). I see that, from broad money measure, the Swiss Franc’s dealings with the Euro area between 1995-1997, was around 60% while being 10% with the Usd. The data I have only goes till 2007 and I can see that the trade weights have changed to: 55% Euro and 10% US. So it is fair to assume that the main bulk of Switzerland’s exposure is with its neighbour, the European Union.



My Conclusion:

• If the Euro were to collapse or depreciate versus the Usd, then interest rates in both the Eurozone and Switzerland, will have to rise. Hence, the effect on the Franc (i.e. its depreciation) should be somewhat mitigated.

• If the Euro were to rise (e.g. due to massive QE3 in the US), then Switzerland will have to cope with what it has in 2011 – i.e. a strong Franc (at least versus the Usd).

• With historic Euro-Chf correlation (although Euro’s short history means we have a limited comparison period) of around 85 to 90% it should be ‘ok’ for the SNB to keep an eye on the ex. Rate.

• No idea what happens if the Euro were to split in two.

• The only problem is that if the Euro rates were to rise, e.g. due to the debt crises, then the Swiss rates will have to artificially rise w.r.t US. What this might cause is Chf’s appreciation versus the Usd and a skew in the FX market. Such artificial rate rise might also lead to local problems in its (i.e. the Swiss) Economy.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2011/09/swiss-franc-first-thoughts-following.html

European currency falls to 1-week low against Japanese yen, Friday, September 26, 2008 6:09:45 AM

Extending Asian session downtrend, the European currency declined to 1-week low against the Japanese yen and a 3-day low versus the Swiss franc during early European deals on Friday. The euro also remained down against the currencies of US and UK.

In economic news, Germany`s import price inflation remained stable in August at its highest level in nearly eight years on higher energy prices.

The Federal Statistical Office said today that the import price index rose 9.3% year-on-year in August, marking the same pace as in July, while quicker than the 8.9% increase in June. Meanwhile, economists had forecast the rate to ease to 9.1%. The August rate was the highest since November 2000. In the same period last year, prices were down 0.6%.

The French economy contracted 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, confirmed the initial estimate, a final report from the statistical office INSEE revealed today. The economy had expanded 0.4% in the first quarter.

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, or ECB and the Swiss National Bank or SNB revealed today that they are introducing operations to provide U.S. dollar liquidity with a one-week maturity using their reciprocal currency arrangements or swap lines.

The Federal Open Market Committee authorized a billion increase in its temporary swap facility with the ECB and a billion increase in its facility with the SNB. According to the Fed, these expanded facilities will now support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to 0 billion by the ECB and up to billion by the SNB.

Against the US dollar, the European currency showed weakness during early deals on Friday. At 3:55 am ET, the euro-dollar pair touched a low of 1.4568, compared to 1.4610 hit late New York Thursday. The pair is now worth 1.4578.

The European currency that closed Thursday`s North American session at 0.7954 against the British pound edged down to 0.7940 at 5:05 am ET Friday.

The Bank of England said today that it will increase the term of its existing operations to lend US dollar funds against collateral eligible in short-term repos and US Treasuries.

Alongside an operation to lend funds overnight, the central bank will lend US billion of funds for one week today. The Bank of England`s overnight dollar repo operations will be US billion on Friday.

Against the Swiss franc, the single currency edged lower during Friday`s early deals. At 3:30 am ET the euro-franc pair slipped to a 3-day low of 1.5880, compared to 1.5937 hit late New York Thursday. The pair is currently quoted at 1.5891.

The Swiss leading indicator in September declined further to 0.62 points from a revised 0.73 points in August, the KOF Economic Institute said today. August`s reading was upwardly revised from 0.68. Economists were looking for a reading of 0.54 for September.

The euro that closed Thursday`s New York deals at 155.70 against the Japanese yen declined to a 1-week low of 153.50 at 3:55 am ET Friday. The euro-yen pair is currently trading at 153.86.

Core inflation in Japan rose 2.4 percent on year in August, in line with analyst expectations, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said today. It also held steady from the July figure, equaling an 11-year high. Overall nationwide CPI was up an annual 2.1 percent, matching forecasts after a 2.3 percent gain on year in the previous month. Overall inflation gained o.3 percent on month.

Across the Atlantic, the US final second quarter GDP, personal consumption expenditure and the University of Michigan`s confidence survey are scheduled for release later in the New York session.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/european-currency-falls-to-1-week-low.html

Russian ruble slips to 2-day low against US dollar, Friday, September 26, 2008 6:37:48 AM

Against the US dollar, the Russian ruble edged down to a 2-day low of 25.0850 at about 6:25 am ET Friday. If the Russian currency weakens further, it may likely target the 25.3 level. The dollar-ruble pair closed Thursday`s North American session at 25.0275.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/russian-ruble-slips-to-2-day-low.html

Hong Kong Dollar Recovers Asian session Losses against US Dollar, Friday, September 26, 2008 7:37:49 AM

The Hong Kong dollar recovered Friday`s Asian session losses against the US dollar during early European deals. The local dollar thus climbed from a 1-week low of 7.7840 to 7.7697 against the greenback by about 4:00 am ET. The pair that closed Thursday`s deals at 7.7785 is now worth 7.7743.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/hong-kong-dollar-recovers-asian-session.html

Global Central Banks Brace For Liquidity Crunch, Friday, September 26, 2008 11:10:04 AM

Friday, the Federal Reserve and leading European central banks announced coordinated measures to address funding pressures. Central banks in Asia Pacific also took measures to boost liquidity.

The Fed along with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank provided U.S. dollar liquidity with a one-weak maturity. Reiterating that they will continue to work together, the central banks said they are ready to take additional measures as needed to deal with the ongoing pressures in the funding markets.

The latest liquidity boost from global central banks came following a breakdown of talks over a US0 billion rescue plan for the US financial system. Sentiment in financial markets also took a hit on the news of collapse of U.S. bank Washington Mutual. Late Thursday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said that it has agreed to acquire all deposits and assets of Washington Mutual for about .9 billion, after the struggling company was seized by regulators in what is considered as the largest bank failure in U.S. history.

In a statement, the Fed said the Federal Open Market Committee authorized a billion increase in its temporary swap facility with the ECB and a billion increase in its facility with the SNB. These expanded facilities will support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to 0 billion by the ECB and up to billion by the SNB.

Together, these changes represent a billion addition to the 7 billion previously authorized swap deals with other central banks. Previously, the Fed had authorized swap lines with the Bank of Japan ( billion), the Bank of England ( billion), the Reserve Bank of Australia ( billion), the Bank of Canada ( billion), the Bank of Sweden ( billion), the National Bank of Denmark ( billion), and the Bank of Norway ( billion). The Fed said these arrangements have been authorized through January 30, 2009.

The actions were in response to the crisis at U.S. financial firms, which took excessive bets on mortgage-backed investments resulting in the write off of billions of dollars of assets. The troubled U. S. investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, while Merrill Lynch got sold to the Bank of America in a quickly-negotiated -billion transaction. Meanwhile, the U.S. government stepped in to save insurer AIG from sinking. The Fed extended an billion loan, essentially nationalizing the firm. Further, investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley converted themselves into regulated commercial banks.

In the latest move, the ECB decided to provide US dollar one-week funding over the quarter end to European banks, applying a variable rate tender procedure and with an intended volume of US billion. The bank received bids worth US.495 billion from 52 banks. The bank offered the funds at a marginal rate of 4.5%. In its overnight operations, the ECB lent US billion, reduced from an initial US billion, against a bid amount of US.38 billion from 33 bidders at a marginal rate of 2.25%.

The SNB allotted US.9 billion at a marginal interest rate of 1% in its one-week repo operation, which had twelve banks participating. In its overnight operation, the central bank allotted US billion against a bid amount of US.3 billion from 13 banks at a marginal rate of 1.82%.

The Bank of England said in a statement that it will increase the term of its existing operations to lend US dollar funds against collateral eligible in short-term repos and US Treasuries. Alongside an operation to lend funds overnight, the central bank will lend US billion of funds for one week today.

The UK central bank`s overnight dollar repo operation was US billion on Friday, reduced from US billion earlier, against a bid amount of US.36 billion. The cover ratio was 1.24 and weighted average accepted rate of 2.208%. In the one-week operation, the bank received US.65 billion worth bids and the cover ratio was 1.06%. The weighted average accepted rate was 2.991%.

The BoE added that Bank`s long-term repo operations against extended collateral, including mortgage securities, will for a period be held weekly and enlarged. The first such operation will be held on September 29. It will be an auction for GBP40 billion, for maturity to January 15, 2009.

Meanwhile, the Danish central bank extended the banks and mortgage credit institutes lending facilities given the tight liquidity conditions. The Danmarks Nationalbank said it will introduce a facility offering banks and institutes credit on the basis of their excess capital adequacy and will increases the number of assets accepted as collateral. These measures will come into effect on September 26. The central bank received bids worth US.8 billion against an offered amount of US billion in its US dollar auction.

Markets in Asia Pacific also received funds on Friday. Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia offered A6 million today in repo. Further, the Australian central bank reportedly said it offered US billion in its first US dollar repurchase operation. Further, the Australian government announced that it will invest A billion in two tranches in the domestic residential mortgage-backed securities to boost home lending.

Elsewhere in the region, the Bank of Japan injected 1.5 trillion yen or USbillion into its money markets.

The South Korean Finance Ministry announced that it would supply at least US billion into the swap market in the coming weeks in order to provide more liquidity. Choi Jong-ku, head of the ministry`s international financial bureau said the central bank would continue to supply dollars whenever necessary.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/global-central-banks-brace-for.html

Japanese yen pares gains against most majors, Friday, September 26, 2008 12:12:14 PM

The Japanese currency pared early gains against most of its major counterparts during New York mid-day trading on Friday.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said that core inflation in Japan increased 2.4 percent on year in August, in line with analyst expectations. It also held steady from the July figure, equaling an 11-year high.

Overall nationwide CPI was up an annual 2.1 percent, matching forecasts after a 2.3 percent gain on year in the previous month. Overall inflation gained 0.3 percent on month.

After hitting an 8-day high of 105.05 by about 8:35 am ET, the yen reversed its direction against the US dollar in New York mid-day deals today. Currently, the pair is worth 106.08.

The U.S. Commerce Department revealed that Gross Domestic Product grew at a rate of 2.8 percent in the April-to-June period. This was slower than the 3.3 percent pace that was reported last month.

The Japanese currency trended down against the euro and the British pound in New York morning deals from previous session`s uptrend. As of now, the yen is trading at 154.77 against the euro and 195.14 versus the pound, compared to early 1-week highs of 153.50 and 193.22, respectively.

Against the Swiss franc, the yen weakened to 97.76 by about 10:00 am ET from last session`s 4-day high of 96.63 today. Presently, the franc-yen pair is trading near 97.40.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/japanese-yen-pares-gains-against-most.html

Aussie recoups losses against most majors, Friday, September 26, 2008 12:37:35 PM

The Australian dollar strengthened against most of its major counterparts from previous session`s downtrend in New York morning deals on Friday.

After touching a 1-week low of 0.8243 against the US dollar and 0.8545 versus the Canadian dollar at about 3:55 am ET, the Aussie gained ground in New York morning session on Friday. As of now, the Australian currency is trading at 0.8317 against the greenback and 0.8608 versus the loonie.

The U.S. Commerce Department revealed that Gross Domestic Product grew at a rate of 2.8 percent in the April-to-June period. This was slower than the 3.3 percent pace that was reported last month.

The statistics also showed that personal spending advanced at a 1.2 percent rate during the quarter, revised down from the 1.7 percent that was previously estimated.

The Aussie ticked up to 1.7539 against the euro and 88.45 versus the yen by about 10:00 am ET from last session`s weekly lows of 1.7686 and 86.89, respectively. At present, the Aussie is worth 1.7577 against the euro and 88.26 versus the yen.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/aussie-recoups-losses-against-most.html

Canadian Dollar Shows Mild Strength Versus Majors, Friday, September 26, 2008 12:53:59 PM

The loonie showed mild strength against its major counterparts on Friday in New York, most notably reaching a fresh weekly high against the euro.

Crude oil dropped on Friday as the ongoing problems in the U.S. financial sector could continue to cause traders to feel energy demand could be dragged lower. Light sweet crude for November delivery moved to 5.67, down .35 on the session. Prices hit as low as 4.25 in overnight deals.

The Canadian dollar experienced choppy trading with the U.S. dollar on Friday. The pair bounced between 1.0372 and 1.0314 throughout the day, staying just below Thursday`s multi-month high.

Investors weighed a slew of reports showing U.S. gross domestic product and personal consumption fell unexpectedly in the second quarter, while a University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence dropped more than expected in September.

The loonie climbed to a fresh weekly high versus the euro on Friday. The Canadian dollar advanced to 1.5071 just after 6:00 am ET, up from an early morning low of 1.5164. Traders pondered a report showing French gross domestic product contracted at an expected rate in the second quarter.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/canadian-dollar-shows-mild-strength.html