Weekly Pound/Euro forecast and the weeks data

Monday 8th October 2012

Good morning everybody.  As
always for a Monday, today I will take a detailed look at the currency
markets, have a look at why the Pound/Euro rate fell so much last week,
and where rates may head in the coming weeks and months.

 

In this week’s Report: 

• Pound/Euro
  rates in decline due to poor UK data


• Sterling
  dollar rates also plateau around .62 


• Global
  Trade Balance figures main data of the week 


• Round up
  of the week’s other data that may affect rate

 Sterling vs. Euro;

There was nothing but bad news for
Sterling at the start of the week as PMI data, houses prices and mortgage
approvals were all worse than expected, with the drop house prices especially
disappointing after a strong reading in September. 

The key release however was
on Wednesday when UK services PMI (the UK’s most important sector) was weaker
than forecast and help force the GBP/EUR rate, which had already dropped a cent
since Monday, to break below the 1.25 barrier. Eurozone data over the first few
days of the week was slightly better than expected but even with the results of
the Spanish banks stress test there seemed to be nothing that could support the
Pound.

 Thursday was the key day of the
week with early afternoon monetary policy announcements from both the Bank of
England & European Central Bank. There were no rate cuts or forms of
monetary easing from either which was widely expected but market analysts are
still expecting the Bank of England to further loosen policy at the November
meeting with another round of Quantitative Easing (QE), and some even suggest
that we could see the UK interest rate cut a quarter point from its current
all-time low of 0.5%. ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement helped the Euro as
he reassured the markets that the ECB’s policy stance was appropriate, while
insisting that there would be no further rate cut this year.

Friday had nothing of importance
from the UK or Eurozone yet the rate fell nearly a cent over the course of the
afternoon. This was all down to slightly better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls
figures from the US which is a leading indicator of the state of the World’s
largest economy and can have a huge bearing on the attitude of the financial
markets. 

With only one of the last six readings showing better than expected
this positive announcement  caused a
swing in risk appetite as investors start putting faith in perceived riskier
currencies. Understandably, the Euro falls under this heading, and the rate
slipped from 1.2465 to 1.2390.

All UK data releases this month
will be heavily scrutinised as on Friday 26^th October we will see
the initial reading of UK 3^rd quarter GDP. If this is negative then
we will have been in recession for an entire year and the knock on effect could
be that we see a move from the Bank of England a fortnight later as mentioned
above.

Any more QE or a further rate cut
could mean a huge drop in the value of the Pound as we move towards Christmas,
whereas if the GDP is 0 or positive, or Spain seek a financial bailout in the
meantime we could see the Euro weakening back towards the highs seen over the
Summer.

As always the GBP/EUR rate could
move quickly and will also be influenced by outside factors so get in touch with us today by clicking here, and discuss your requirements at your earliest opportunity
as there are many options at your disposal whether buying or selling currency.

  

Weekly Economic Data that may affect
exchange rates

Monday – US Markets are closed today for Columbus
Day. We have a raft of data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy: Imports and
Exports, Trade Balance, Industrial Production and Investor Confidence data. In
the UK the only data of note is the latest House Price info from the Royal
Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and the British Retail Consortium
(BRC) Sales monitor.

Tuesday – An important day for GBP/EUR rates. Starting
in the UK we see Trade Balance figures in addition to the latest Industrial and
Manufacturing Production numbers. In the EU we have the French Budget in
addition to their Trade Balance numbers. In Greece there are inflation numbers.
US markets reopen however the only data of note is an economic optimism survey.

Wednesday – There is no data of note from the UK today.
The only EU data is French and Greek industrial production numbers. Most data
today is from the United States: Mortgage Applications, monthly budget
statement, wholesale inventories and the Fed’s beige book which gives an
overall picture of economic optimism.

Thursday – There are no UK releases today, but we do
have a busy day in Europe. To start with we have the G7 finance ministers
meeting. We then have Inflation numbers from Spain, Germany and France,
following by unemployment figures from Greece. The ECB also gives its monthly
report today, and is then followed by Industrial production numbers. Over in
the United States we have Import and Export numbers, Jobless Claims, Trade
Balance figures and a bond auction.

Friday – The
only UK release today is the CB Leading Economic Index. This looks at future trends of the
overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek,
initial claims, permits for new housing construction etc., and therefore it’s a
good measure for overall economic stability. The only other significant data
releases are from the US: Inflation data and a consumer sentiment survey.

 

Getting the best exchange rates 

You want the best exchange rates, of
course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your
timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a
consultation on all the options available to you. 


It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and
you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange
rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to
send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

 

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/weekly-poundeuro-forecast-and-weeks-data.html

Weekly Pound/Euro forecast and the weeks data

Monday 8th October 2012
Good morning everybody.  As always for a Monday, today I will take a detailed look at the currency markets, have a look at why the Pound/Euro rate fell so much last week, and where rates may head in the coming weeks and months. 

In this week’s Report:

•     Pound/Euro rates in decline due to poor UK data


•     Sterling dollar rates also plateau around .62


•     Global Trade Balance figures main data of the week


•     Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rate 

Sterling vs. Euro;

There was nothing but bad news for Sterling at the start of the week as PMI data, houses prices and mortgage approvals were all worse than expected, with the drop house prices especially disappointing after a strong reading in September.

The key release however was on Wednesday when UK services PMI (the UK’s most important sector) was weaker than forecast and help force the GBP/EUR rate, which had already dropped a cent since Monday, to break below the 1.25 barrier. Eurozone data over the first few days of the week was slightly better than expected but even with the results of the Spanish banks stress test there seemed to be nothing that could support the Pound.

Thursday was the key day of the week with early afternoon monetary policy announcements from both the Bank of England & European Central Bank. There were no rate cuts or forms of monetary easing from either which was widely expected but market analysts are still expecting the Bank of England to further loosen policy at the November meeting with another round of Quantitative Easing (QE), and some even suggest that we could see the UK interest rate cut a quarter point from its current all-time low of 0.5%. ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement helped the Euro as he reassured the markets that the ECB’s policy stance was appropriate, while insisting that there would be no further rate cut this year.

Friday had nothing of importance from the UK or Eurozone yet the rate fell nearly a cent over the course of the afternoon. This was all down to slightly better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls figures from the US which is a leading indicator of the state of the World’s largest economy and can have a huge bearing on the attitude of the financial markets.

With only one of the last six readings showing better than expected this positive announcement  caused a swing in risk appetite as investors start putting faith in perceived riskier currencies. Understandably, the Euro falls under this heading, and the rate slipped from 1.2465 to 1.2390.

All UK data releases this month will be heavily scrutinised as on Friday 26th October we will see the initial reading of UK 3rd quarter GDP. If this is negative then we will have been in recession for an entire year and the knock on effect could be that we see a move from the Bank of England a fortnight later as mentioned above.

Any more QE or a further rate cut could mean a huge drop in the value of the Pound as we move towards Christmas, whereas if the GDP is 0 or positive, or Spain seek a financial bailout in the meantime we could see the Euro weakening back towards the highs seen over the Summer.

As always the GBP/EUR rate could move quickly and will also be influenced by outside factors so get in touch with us today by clicking here, and discuss your requirements at your earliest opportunity as there are many options at your disposal whether buying or selling currency.
 
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – US Markets are closed today for Columbus Day. We have a raft of data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy: Imports and Exports, Trade Balance, Industrial Production and Investor Confidence data. In the UK the only data of note is the latest House Price info from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Sales monitor.

Tuesday – An important day for GBP/EUR rates. Starting in the UK we see Trade Balance figures in addition to the latest Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers. In the EU we have the French Budget in addition to their Trade Balance numbers. In Greece there are inflation numbers. US markets reopen however the only data of note is an economic optimism survey.

Wednesday – There is no data of note from the UK today. The only EU data is French and Greek industrial production numbers. Most data today is from the United States: Mortgage Applications, monthly budget statement, wholesale inventories and the Fed’s beige book which gives an overall picture of economic optimism.

Thursday – There are no UK releases today, but we do have a busy day in Europe. To start with we have the G7 finance ministers meeting. We then have Inflation numbers from Spain, Germany and France, following by unemployment figures from Greece. The ECB also gives its monthly report today, and is then followed by Industrial production numbers. Over in the United States we have Import and Export numbers, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance figures and a bond auction.

Friday – The only UK release today is the CB Leading Economic Index. This looks at future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction etc., and therefore it’s a good measure for overall economic stability. The only other significant data releases are from the US: Inflation data and a consumer sentiment survey.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

 It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

 Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/weekly-poundeuro-forecast-and-weeks-data_8.html

Pound at 4 month low vs Euro despite good UK data

Wednesday 17th October 2012
Good afternoon. It has been an interesting day for exchange rates, as we saw some much better UK data which helped lift Sterling against many currencies, however against the Euro we saw rates fall to a 4 month low due to a stronger Euro. This afternoon I’ll take a quick look at the data that has been released and the effect it has had on exchange rates.

Better UK Data lifts Sterling, but not against the Euro

The Pound made some gains this morning after some surprisingly good data was released. Firstly we had the latest jobless data. Unemployment fell by 50,000 to 2.53m in the three months to August, taking the jobless rate down to 7.9% from 8.1%.

A combination of more jobs being created and more people entering the workforce pushed the absolute number of people in employment to 29.6 million, the highest since these records began in 1971. The percentage of people in work rose to 71.3%, the best rate since April 2009. 

This was welcome news for the UK economy and surprised most analysts. The better outlook for employment in the UK raised the possibility that the economy may have staged a reasonable recovery in the third quarter after three consecutive quarters of contraction. The first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product is due next week and that will help us understand more.

The news gave Sterling a boost against most currencies, including the US Dollar that recovered back close to the .62 mark.

Despite the good data, Pound/Euro rates falls to 4 month low. 

Sterling fell to a 4 month low against the euro this morning after Moody's affirmed Spain's credit rating yesterday evening. The fact that they will keep their credit rating gave the Euro a boost, and coupled with the optimism surrounding the single currency after months of doubt, we saw the Euro gain significant strength.

This caused the GBP/EUR rate to fall, and despite the better UK jobs data, there was no significant recovery and the mid-market rate remains just above €1.23.

Bank of England minutes 

The latest BoE minutes were also released this morning. These showed policymakers were split on the need to buy more British government debt under their quantitative easing programme. Most economists had been expecting the central bank to opt for more QE in November.
Although they voted 9-0 earlier this month for no more QE, the fact that the actual policy discussion showed that there is indecision amongst the MPC members means it’s not now clear if and when more QE will be announced.

It was widely expected more would follow in November, but now this is not as clear cut. With better jobs data, the market will await the GDP figures to determine the likelihood of more QE.
If they do opt for more stimulus, Sterling could come under pressure as it is usually negative for the pound as it increases the supply of the currency.


 

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

 Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/pound-at-4-month-low-vs-euro-despite.html

Pound/Euro rates climb after good GDP data

Monday 29th October 2012
Good morning. The Pound/Euro rates climbed nicely last week when UK GDP figures confirmed we are out of recession. Today I'll have a look back at the events of last week, look at what might happen with exchange rates going forwards, and as usual round up the weekly economic data that could affect exchange rates in the short term.

In this week’s Report: 

•  Pound/Euro rates hit 3-week high 


• UK finally out of recession – GDP grows 1% 


• A volatile week for the Pound/Dollar cross 


• Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates 

Sterling vs. Euro; 

The pound surged last week on the back of a hugely better than expected GDP swing of 1.6% quarter on quarter, showing an initial estimate of a full 1% growth in the UK for Q3 2012. Though this figure is sure to change as the final figures are more accurately calculated, the realisation that the UK had exited recession was more than enough to send its currency on a rally.

This caused Pound/Euro rates to surge nicely at the end of last week.



Forecasters still expect a Euro rally in the wake of any request by the Spanish Government for financial assistance from the EU, but as yet this still hasn’t happened. In the absence of serious support for the Euro as the Spanish continue to tap-dance around the bailout, the pound was free to strengthen nearly 2.5 cents unabated in a day and a half after the GDP report.

This quick movement shows how easily gains can be made and lost on the currency market; those who were holding off selling their Euros whilst waiting for the Spanish Bailout lost nearly £3000 on an average second home sale price of €180,000. Of course one man’s loss is another’s gain with those looking to buy in the Euro zone have benefited from this sharp spike.

Experience teaches us that spikes are often just that, with correcting movements seeing rates move the opposite way very quickly.

One way of trying to make sure you catch a spike in your favour is by using our services. Unless you have the time and inclination to sit and watch a prices screen day in day out, the free services we provide mean you always have eyes and ears on the market that can inform you as soon as the rates move.

With the wide array of currency contracts available and state of the art trading facilities we can cover your bases for your currency needs when buying, selling or servicing overseas properties as well as any foreign invoices your company may need to pay.

Consultations with us are free, as are trading facilities which carry no obligation.

Click here to send me a free enquiry now.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates 

Monday – A relatively quiet day for data releases to start the week. We have Net Lending figures from the UK along with inflation figures from both Germany and the US. 

Tuesday – A quiet day for data releases in the UK today. In Europe, the president of the ECB Mario Draghi gives a speech. We also have a ten-year Italian bond auction. It may be an interesting day for the GBP/EUR cross. From the States we have consumer confidence measures. 

Wednesday –We have consumer confidence figures from the UK today and a raft of inconsequential data from the Eurozone, including the general unemployment rate and inflation measures, both of which should have little impact on exchange rates. 

Thursday –As was the case last week, Thursday will be an interesting day for data releases. We have manufacturing PMI from China, the States and the UK along with unemployment figures from the US and house price data from the UK. 

Friday – We end the week with Canadian and American unemployment figures along with Spanish and Italian PMI data.
 

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.
 

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/poundeuro-rates-climb-after-good-gdp.html

Better UK data boost Pound, but not against Euro

Wednesday 31st October 2012
Good afternoon. Sterling rose against most currencies through trading today, but remained fairly flat against the Euro at around the €1.24 level. The reason for the gains is the fact we’ve had some decent and robust UK data releases recently, reducing the chances of further Quantitative Easing in the UK. This afternoon I’ll take a look at the better UK data and what the forecast is for Pound/Euro rates moving forwards.

Better UK data boosts the Pound. 

Following last week’s much better than expected UK GDP figures confirming we are no longer in recession, Sterling has performed quite well. In addition, we have also seen much higher than forecast numbers from other releases such as consumer credit, mortgage data and CBI retail sales data, all of which were much better than most had been expected, and mean the outlook for the UK economy is now looking much rosier.

All these better numbers mean there is now much less chance of further monetary easing from the BoE next month. It also means investors are much more confident about investing in the Pound, and that is what has caused Sterling to rise against most other currencies.

Why hasn’t the Pound risen much against the Euro? 

It’s mainly due to the fact it’s the end of the month. There was big demand for buying the Euro as global banks wind up their positions for month end, and the European Central bank also had huge demand for Euros today, which has kept the single currency strong and hindered any significant gains for the GBP/EUR cross.

Moving forwards, I believe that the Euro will actually weaken somewhat in the coming weeks. While the UK has returned to growth, in the Eurozone growth is in decline. In particular Germany which is the EU’s largest economy is starting to slow, and this combined with the on-going debt crisis could well cause Euro weakness and help push GBP/EUR rates back up as we head in to November.

Less chance of QE from Bank of England 

Due to the better data as highlighted above, many think there is now less chance of Quantitative Easing from the Bank of England next month. This could indeed be the case; however some BoE policymakers have flagged a weaker outlook for growth in the fourth-quarter.

Purchasing Manufacturers' Index data for manufacturing, construction and services are due this week and next week will be watched for an indication of UK economic health into the fourth quarter.

Once these numbers are released, the likelihood of further stimulus or not will become much clearer.

If you need to buy or sell Euros, should you do so now or wait? 

This is what everyone wants to know, and of course it is impossible to predict which way rates will go. On the one hand, if the Euro does weaken and UK data continues to impress, rates are likely to recover back towards €1.25. If however the next raft of UK data is not as good as expected and more Quantitative Easing is announced by the BoE, the Pound would likely weaken significantly.

In the current climate, regardless whether you are buying or selling Euros, Stop Loss and Limit Orders are very useful tools. These allow you to place a lower level and if rates drop below this, your currency is automatically secured and your rate fixed. In this way you can continue holding out for any gains, however if the market drops you are not left exposed.

A limit order allows you to place a target level above the current price, and if rates go through this your currency is purchased. This allows you to take advantage of any spikes without having to continually monitor the market.


Get in touch now for a free consultation

I can discuss your currency requirements and the timescales you are working to, and then run over the options that are available to you to help protect you against adverse exchange rate movements.

In this way you can take control of your currency requirement and not simply hope that the market will move in your direction. By employing a strategy and giving yourself a target rate, you can often save significant sums than just leaving things to chance.

I look forward to hearing from you. 
 

Click here to send me a free enquiry

Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/better-uk-data-boost-pound-but-not.html

Dollar falls before US jobs data

he dollar fell against the euro and yen on Friday as investors awaited a key US employment report amid tentative signs of a recovery in the world's largest economy.

In late morning trading here, the European single currency rose to 1.4361 dollars from 1.4347 dollars in New York late on Thursday.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar dropped to 95.41 yen from 95.44 yen late Thursday.

All eyes were on Friday's non-farm payrolls data in the United States amid mounting hopes that the pace of job losses there was slowing.

"Optimism is growing that the (US) economy has hit bottom and that it has exited the worst of the downturn. The market is out of its phase of utter hopelessness," said Hachijuni Bank foreign exchange strategist Masatsugu Miyata.

But he noted that the picture was not entirely rosy, with consumer spending and retail sales still sluggish.

The euro edged up following a fall on Thursday after the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at a record low 1.0 percent.

Dealers noted that ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet voiced confidence about the prospects for an economic recovery but also warned that the outlook remained uncertain.

Source | Forex Update | http://adeel-forex-update.blogspot.com/2009/08/dollar-falls-before-us-jobs-data.html

Oil Trades Little Changed Ahead of U.S. Crude Inventories Data

August 05 Oil traded little changed ahead of official figures expected to show U.S. crude inventories rose and as the dollar gained against the euro, reducing the investment appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.
An Energy Department report today will probably show U.S. crude stockpiles increased 600,000 barrels, according to analysts surveyed by forex news-4all.blogspot.com, in contrast to the 1.52 million barrel decline reported yesterday by the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute. Crude had risen as much as 0.6 percent after the API data, which has moved in the same direction as the government figures 76 percent of the time over the past four years, Bloomberg data show.
“The last few weeks, the API report was not in agreement with the DOE report, and there is some caution in the market on it,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at consultant Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore.
Crude oil for September delivery traded at .28 a barrel, down 14 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:21 p.m. in Singapore. Earlier, it rose 45 cents to .87 a barrel. Yesterday, oil dropped 16 cents, or 0.2 percent, to settle at .42 a barrel.
The dollar rose to .4395 per euro at 1:17 p.m. in Singapore from .4408 in New York yesterday. The U.S. currency declined to .4445 on Aug. 3, the lowest since Dec. 18.
Gasoline Supplies
U.S. gasoline inventories increased 2.1 million barrels to 215.7 million in the week ended July 31, the API report showed. The API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines.
“The API numbers seemed to provide a little bit of mild strength to prices,” Toby Hassall, a research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney, said by phone. “This rally has been sentiment driven and it is largely dependent on equities maintaining momentum if oil is going to make new highs for 2009.”
The Energy Department is scheduled to release its report on crude stockpiles for the week ended July 31 at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.
Gasoline for September delivery fell 1.02 cents, or 0.5 percent, to .0465 a gallon in New York at 1:19 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it declined 1.26 cents, or 0.6 percent, to end at .0567.
Brent crude oil for September settlement was trading at .35 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange at 1:22 p.m. in Singapore, having earlier risen as much as 53 cents, or 0.7 percent, to .81. Yesterday, the contract rose 73 cents, or 1 percent, to .28.

Source | Forex News | http://forexnews-4all.blogspot.com/2009/08/oil-trades-little-changed-ahead-of-us.html