Pound Sterling (Gbp) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Gbp is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Gbp/Usd	1.5263	1.4954	1.5525
Gbp/Aud	1.7289	1.7189	1.7352
Gbp/Chf	1.6095	1.4881	1.7061
Gbp/Inr	71.2477	68.1197	73.9051
Gbp/Cny	10.3437	9.8278	10.7510
Gbp/Jpy	134.8868	124.1247	143.1467
Gbp/Brl	2.6860	2.5152	2.8228
Gbp/Nzd	2.1114	2.1028	2.1316
Gbp/Cad	1.5747	1.5163	1.6273
Gbp/Zar	11.4952	10.9876	12.0173
Gbp/Eur	1.1963	1.1936	1.2002

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts

Pound's current valuation shows that it is fairly valued.

With the current Government's plan to get the budget defict down to nearly 1% over the course of their current term, the markets and the rating agencies have begun to look at the Pound favourably. With the uncertain market dynamics moving from looking at dangers faced by the US dollar on one hand and the Euro on the other, the Pound could benefit as an alternative investment currency.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/pound-streling-gbp-monthly-forecast.html

Pound at 4 month low vs Euro despite good UK data

Wednesday 17th October 2012
Good afternoon. It has been an interesting day for exchange rates, as we saw some much better UK data which helped lift Sterling against many currencies, however against the Euro we saw rates fall to a 4 month low due to a stronger Euro. This afternoon I’ll take a quick look at the data that has been released and the effect it has had on exchange rates.

Better UK Data lifts Sterling, but not against the Euro

The Pound made some gains this morning after some surprisingly good data was released. Firstly we had the latest jobless data. Unemployment fell by 50,000 to 2.53m in the three months to August, taking the jobless rate down to 7.9% from 8.1%.

A combination of more jobs being created and more people entering the workforce pushed the absolute number of people in employment to 29.6 million, the highest since these records began in 1971. The percentage of people in work rose to 71.3%, the best rate since April 2009. 

This was welcome news for the UK economy and surprised most analysts. The better outlook for employment in the UK raised the possibility that the economy may have staged a reasonable recovery in the third quarter after three consecutive quarters of contraction. The first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product is due next week and that will help us understand more.

The news gave Sterling a boost against most currencies, including the US Dollar that recovered back close to the .62 mark.

Despite the good data, Pound/Euro rates falls to 4 month low. 

Sterling fell to a 4 month low against the euro this morning after Moody's affirmed Spain's credit rating yesterday evening. The fact that they will keep their credit rating gave the Euro a boost, and coupled with the optimism surrounding the single currency after months of doubt, we saw the Euro gain significant strength.

This caused the GBP/EUR rate to fall, and despite the better UK jobs data, there was no significant recovery and the mid-market rate remains just above €1.23.

Bank of England minutes 

The latest BoE minutes were also released this morning. These showed policymakers were split on the need to buy more British government debt under their quantitative easing programme. Most economists had been expecting the central bank to opt for more QE in November.
Although they voted 9-0 earlier this month for no more QE, the fact that the actual policy discussion showed that there is indecision amongst the MPC members means it’s not now clear if and when more QE will be announced.

It was widely expected more would follow in November, but now this is not as clear cut. With better jobs data, the market will await the GDP figures to determine the likelihood of more QE.
If they do opt for more stimulus, Sterling could come under pressure as it is usually negative for the pound as it increases the supply of the currency.


 

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Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/pound-at-4-month-low-vs-euro-despite.html

Better UK data boost Pound, but not against Euro

Wednesday 31st October 2012
Good afternoon. Sterling rose against most currencies through trading today, but remained fairly flat against the Euro at around the €1.24 level. The reason for the gains is the fact we’ve had some decent and robust UK data releases recently, reducing the chances of further Quantitative Easing in the UK. This afternoon I’ll take a look at the better UK data and what the forecast is for Pound/Euro rates moving forwards.

Better UK data boosts the Pound. 

Following last week’s much better than expected UK GDP figures confirming we are no longer in recession, Sterling has performed quite well. In addition, we have also seen much higher than forecast numbers from other releases such as consumer credit, mortgage data and CBI retail sales data, all of which were much better than most had been expected, and mean the outlook for the UK economy is now looking much rosier.

All these better numbers mean there is now much less chance of further monetary easing from the BoE next month. It also means investors are much more confident about investing in the Pound, and that is what has caused Sterling to rise against most other currencies.

Why hasn’t the Pound risen much against the Euro? 

It’s mainly due to the fact it’s the end of the month. There was big demand for buying the Euro as global banks wind up their positions for month end, and the European Central bank also had huge demand for Euros today, which has kept the single currency strong and hindered any significant gains for the GBP/EUR cross.

Moving forwards, I believe that the Euro will actually weaken somewhat in the coming weeks. While the UK has returned to growth, in the Eurozone growth is in decline. In particular Germany which is the EU’s largest economy is starting to slow, and this combined with the on-going debt crisis could well cause Euro weakness and help push GBP/EUR rates back up as we head in to November.

Less chance of QE from Bank of England 

Due to the better data as highlighted above, many think there is now less chance of Quantitative Easing from the Bank of England next month. This could indeed be the case; however some BoE policymakers have flagged a weaker outlook for growth in the fourth-quarter.

Purchasing Manufacturers' Index data for manufacturing, construction and services are due this week and next week will be watched for an indication of UK economic health into the fourth quarter.

Once these numbers are released, the likelihood of further stimulus or not will become much clearer.

If you need to buy or sell Euros, should you do so now or wait? 

This is what everyone wants to know, and of course it is impossible to predict which way rates will go. On the one hand, if the Euro does weaken and UK data continues to impress, rates are likely to recover back towards €1.25. If however the next raft of UK data is not as good as expected and more Quantitative Easing is announced by the BoE, the Pound would likely weaken significantly.

In the current climate, regardless whether you are buying or selling Euros, Stop Loss and Limit Orders are very useful tools. These allow you to place a lower level and if rates drop below this, your currency is automatically secured and your rate fixed. In this way you can continue holding out for any gains, however if the market drops you are not left exposed.

A limit order allows you to place a target level above the current price, and if rates go through this your currency is purchased. This allows you to take advantage of any spikes without having to continually monitor the market.


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I look forward to hearing from you. 
 

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Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/better-uk-data-boost-pound-but-not.html

British Pound Extends Gains Against U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen

July 28 -- The pound extended gains against the dollar and the yen.
The British currency rose 0.3 percent to .6540 as of 7:09 a.m. in London. Against the yen, the pound advanced 0.3 percent to 157.33.

Source | Forex News | http://forexnews-4all.blogspot.com/2009/07/british-pound-extends-gains-against-us.html