Euro Dollar bullish pattern ?

Here we go again with the Euro Dollar, another attempt to break that key resistance.
We now need a key event, maybe from Germany's Merkel ? 

Source | Alpha Global Investors | http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2012/12/euro-dollar-bullish-pattern.html

Euro (Eur) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Eur is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Eur/Usd	1.2758	1.2528	1.2935
Eur/Aud	1.4452	1.4322	1.4537
Eur/Chf	1.3453	1.2467	1.4215
Eur/Inr	59.5543	57.0685	61.5783
Eur/Cny	8.6461	8.2335	8.9578
Eur/Jpy	112.7488	103.9878	119.2708
Eur/Brl	2.2452	2.1071	2.3520
Eur/Gbp	0.8359	0.8332	0.8378
Eur/Nzd	1.7648	1.7521	1.7858
Eur/Cad	1.3162	1.2703	1.3559
Eur/Zar	9.6086	9.2051	10.0129

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The recent successful sale of the Greek debt shows that the Euro has come out of its recent 'extreme' low levels due to the threat of a split. Some still believe that germany might pull out at sometime in the future if the debt fears spread to other southern European countries and this might leave the Euro's valuation in an unpredictable territory.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/euro-eur-monthly-forecast-from-14july10.html

The Roots of the Euro Crisis Lie at the Doorsteps of the ECB

I have written a column,  published in EconoMonitor, which argues that deficiencies in the Eurosystem monetary policy contributed to the “euro crisis”, which is, in reality, an intra-Eurozone balance of payments and external debt crisis.  It claims that the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and procedures allowed intra-Eurozone external imbalances to accumulate since the start of the third phase of the EMU in January 1, 1999. As a result, though the Eurozone has low levels of net external debt relative to its GDP, it presently confronts, in its midst, what is likely the largest peacetime external debt crisis the World has ever seen.  Moreover, it points out that the Eurosystem’s monetary policy has always had large fiscal effects and currently results in financial transfers from Eurozone creditor countries (the GNLF) to Eurozone debtor countries (the GIIPS) that may amount to 1.3% of the GIIPS’ combined GDP per year.

Please see full post here.

On the subject of how the ECB has recently (ab)used its vast (unlimited?) powers I recommend the reading of the following column by Karl Whelan. 

Source | The Portuguese Economy | http://theportugueseeconomy.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-roots-of-euro-crisis-lie-at.html

Euro Drops Against Major Peers Before Spain Debt Auctions

The euro fell to less than .30 for the first time in two months as Spanish bond yields touched a 2012 high after a minister called on the European Central Bank to do more to stem debt-market turmoil.

The 17-nation currency dropped for a second day against the yen and reached the lowest since 2010 versus the pound. The yen strengthened against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts. China’s yuan weakened as the central bank widened the currency’s trading band. Higher-yielding currencies trimmed losses against the dollar after U.S. retail sales rose in March and yields on Spanish government securities pared increases.

“There’s still a hesitation with respect to trading in European bond markets,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “The U.S. data was a little bit better than expected. It’s causing a minor risk-on rally.”

The euro fell 0.3 percent to .3040 at 9:59 a.m. in New York after dropping to .2995, the weakest since Feb. 16. The shared currency weakened 0.7 percent to 105.12 yen after declining 0.8 percent on April 13. The euro slipped 0.2 percent to 82.35 U.K. pence after reaching 82.10 pence, the lowest since September 2010. The yen rose 0.4 percent to 80.58 per dollar.

Source | Forex News Paper | http://forexnewspaper.blogspot.com/2012/04/euro-drops-against-major-peers-before.html

Pound at 4 month low vs Euro despite good UK data

Wednesday 17th October 2012
Good afternoon. It has been an interesting day for exchange rates, as we saw some much better UK data which helped lift Sterling against many currencies, however against the Euro we saw rates fall to a 4 month low due to a stronger Euro. This afternoon I’ll take a quick look at the data that has been released and the effect it has had on exchange rates.

Better UK Data lifts Sterling, but not against the Euro

The Pound made some gains this morning after some surprisingly good data was released. Firstly we had the latest jobless data. Unemployment fell by 50,000 to 2.53m in the three months to August, taking the jobless rate down to 7.9% from 8.1%.

A combination of more jobs being created and more people entering the workforce pushed the absolute number of people in employment to 29.6 million, the highest since these records began in 1971. The percentage of people in work rose to 71.3%, the best rate since April 2009. 

This was welcome news for the UK economy and surprised most analysts. The better outlook for employment in the UK raised the possibility that the economy may have staged a reasonable recovery in the third quarter after three consecutive quarters of contraction. The first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product is due next week and that will help us understand more.

The news gave Sterling a boost against most currencies, including the US Dollar that recovered back close to the .62 mark.

Despite the good data, Pound/Euro rates falls to 4 month low. 

Sterling fell to a 4 month low against the euro this morning after Moody's affirmed Spain's credit rating yesterday evening. The fact that they will keep their credit rating gave the Euro a boost, and coupled with the optimism surrounding the single currency after months of doubt, we saw the Euro gain significant strength.

This caused the GBP/EUR rate to fall, and despite the better UK jobs data, there was no significant recovery and the mid-market rate remains just above €1.23.

Bank of England minutes 

The latest BoE minutes were also released this morning. These showed policymakers were split on the need to buy more British government debt under their quantitative easing programme. Most economists had been expecting the central bank to opt for more QE in November.
Although they voted 9-0 earlier this month for no more QE, the fact that the actual policy discussion showed that there is indecision amongst the MPC members means it’s not now clear if and when more QE will be announced.

It was widely expected more would follow in November, but now this is not as clear cut. With better jobs data, the market will await the GDP figures to determine the likelihood of more QE.
If they do opt for more stimulus, Sterling could come under pressure as it is usually negative for the pound as it increases the supply of the currency.


 

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Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/pound-at-4-month-low-vs-euro-despite.html

Euro Weakens Against Dollar on Funding Concern

The euro weakened against the dollar and pared an advance versus the yen as concern that European nations face difficulty funding debt damped demand.

Europe’s shared currency fell as yields on Spanish 10-year benchmark bonds and French five-year debt rose at auctions, fueling speculation on credit downgrades. The dollar climbed versus the yen as Bank of Japan officials signaled they’ll keep acting to weaken the currency. The greenback advanced against all its major counterparts except the pound and the Taiwanese dollar as weekly U.S. jobless claims were higher than forecast.

“Auction results over the past two weeks show that European sovereigns are still able to place paper, but until there is underlying economic growth, investors are going to continue to demand steep yield premiums for the peripherals and even for France,” said Greg Anderson, the North American head of Group-of-10 nations currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “People are building yen positions in anticipation of further easing next week.”

The euro declined 0.1 percent to .3106 at 9:26 a.m. New York time. The 17-nation currency was up 0.2 percent to 106.81 yen, after earlier rising as much as 0.7 percent. The dollar appreciated 0.3 percent to 81.49 yen.

Source | Forex News Paper | http://forexnewspaper.blogspot.com/2012/04/euro-weakens-against-dollar-on-funding.html

Dollar May Weaken Against Euro, Yen, Citigroup Says

July 21 The U.S. dollar may weaken against the euro, the yen and the Australian dollar as global sentiment turns against the greenback, according to Citigroup Inc.
The euro may extend this month’s gains versus the dollar as buying by sovereign wealth managers and central banks bolsters the 16-nation currency, Citigroup said in a monthly note on its foreign-exchange forecasts. The yen may strengthen against the dollar as Japan’s economy begins to rebound, attracting investors to the Asian nation’s assets, the bank said.
“We detect evidence that underlying sentiment remains U.S. dollar negative,” Citigroup analysts including Jeremy Hale, London-based head of macro strategy, wrote in the note to clients yesterday.
The euro will climb to .43 in three months and reach .45 in six to 12 months, Citigroup said in the note. The yen will rise to 93 per dollar in three months and strengthen to 90 in six to 12 months, the company said.
The dollar traded at .4200 per euro and 93.94 yen as of 8:28 a.m. in London.
The Australian dollar is likely to lead gains among so- called commodity currencies, the analysts wrote.
Australia’s currency will advance to 83 U.S. cents in six to 12 months and New Zealand’s currency will rise to 66 cents, the company said. The so-called Aussie traded at 81.21 U.S. cents and New Zealand’s dollar was at 65.30 cents.

Source | Forex News | http://forexnews-4all.blogspot.com/2009/07/dollar-may-weaken-against-euro-yen.html

Better UK data boost Pound, but not against Euro

Wednesday 31st October 2012
Good afternoon. Sterling rose against most currencies through trading today, but remained fairly flat against the Euro at around the €1.24 level. The reason for the gains is the fact we’ve had some decent and robust UK data releases recently, reducing the chances of further Quantitative Easing in the UK. This afternoon I’ll take a look at the better UK data and what the forecast is for Pound/Euro rates moving forwards.

Better UK data boosts the Pound. 

Following last week’s much better than expected UK GDP figures confirming we are no longer in recession, Sterling has performed quite well. In addition, we have also seen much higher than forecast numbers from other releases such as consumer credit, mortgage data and CBI retail sales data, all of which were much better than most had been expected, and mean the outlook for the UK economy is now looking much rosier.

All these better numbers mean there is now much less chance of further monetary easing from the BoE next month. It also means investors are much more confident about investing in the Pound, and that is what has caused Sterling to rise against most other currencies.

Why hasn’t the Pound risen much against the Euro? 

It’s mainly due to the fact it’s the end of the month. There was big demand for buying the Euro as global banks wind up their positions for month end, and the European Central bank also had huge demand for Euros today, which has kept the single currency strong and hindered any significant gains for the GBP/EUR cross.

Moving forwards, I believe that the Euro will actually weaken somewhat in the coming weeks. While the UK has returned to growth, in the Eurozone growth is in decline. In particular Germany which is the EU’s largest economy is starting to slow, and this combined with the on-going debt crisis could well cause Euro weakness and help push GBP/EUR rates back up as we head in to November.

Less chance of QE from Bank of England 

Due to the better data as highlighted above, many think there is now less chance of Quantitative Easing from the Bank of England next month. This could indeed be the case; however some BoE policymakers have flagged a weaker outlook for growth in the fourth-quarter.

Purchasing Manufacturers' Index data for manufacturing, construction and services are due this week and next week will be watched for an indication of UK economic health into the fourth quarter.

Once these numbers are released, the likelihood of further stimulus or not will become much clearer.

If you need to buy or sell Euros, should you do so now or wait? 

This is what everyone wants to know, and of course it is impossible to predict which way rates will go. On the one hand, if the Euro does weaken and UK data continues to impress, rates are likely to recover back towards €1.25. If however the next raft of UK data is not as good as expected and more Quantitative Easing is announced by the BoE, the Pound would likely weaken significantly.

In the current climate, regardless whether you are buying or selling Euros, Stop Loss and Limit Orders are very useful tools. These allow you to place a lower level and if rates drop below this, your currency is automatically secured and your rate fixed. In this way you can continue holding out for any gains, however if the market drops you are not left exposed.

A limit order allows you to place a target level above the current price, and if rates go through this your currency is purchased. This allows you to take advantage of any spikes without having to continually monitor the market.


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Source | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts | http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2012/10/better-uk-data-boost-pound-but-not.html

The Swiss Franc: first thoughts following the SNB’s Euro peg of 1.20 on 6th September 2011.

 B. Hathi , 6th Spet 2011.

I have analysed the daily movement in Usd/Chf and there has never been roughly an 8% Chf weakening in history since its free flotation in 1971. From Fig 2 of the July article, we can see that the Chf has, at maximum, weakened about 4.5% in a day, so this move is by far the largest.


The most important question to us, including the SNB and the ECB, will be if this peg is sustainable. I did some ‘back of an envelope’ calculations. If, for whatever reason, the Eur/Usd were to move in both directions by 15%, then the peg should be sustainable. The reason I say this is the primary FX pair, the Usd/Chf will have to move between 0.75 (a strong franc) to 1.0 (an ‘ok’ Franc). If the Euro were to collapse versus the Usd to, say 1.0 level then the Chf will have to be at 1.20 versus the Usd – again a level that is not unimaginable from the past valuations. However this might cause an unpleasant spike in the local Swiss inflation as commodity and factory input costs rise fast. But that is a problem for, one hopes a distant future, i.e. when the SNB are forced to raise interest rates.



For another clue I looked at the BIS trade weights that show Switzerland’s trading exposure against various countries (and currencies). I see that, from broad money measure, the Swiss Franc’s dealings with the Euro area between 1995-1997, was around 60% while being 10% with the Usd. The data I have only goes till 2007 and I can see that the trade weights have changed to: 55% Euro and 10% US. So it is fair to assume that the main bulk of Switzerland’s exposure is with its neighbour, the European Union.



My Conclusion:

• If the Euro were to collapse or depreciate versus the Usd, then interest rates in both the Eurozone and Switzerland, will have to rise. Hence, the effect on the Franc (i.e. its depreciation) should be somewhat mitigated.

• If the Euro were to rise (e.g. due to massive QE3 in the US), then Switzerland will have to cope with what it has in 2011 – i.e. a strong Franc (at least versus the Usd).

• With historic Euro-Chf correlation (although Euro’s short history means we have a limited comparison period) of around 85 to 90% it should be ‘ok’ for the SNB to keep an eye on the ex. Rate.

• No idea what happens if the Euro were to split in two.

• The only problem is that if the Euro rates were to rise, e.g. due to the debt crises, then the Swiss rates will have to artificially rise w.r.t US. What this might cause is Chf’s appreciation versus the Usd and a skew in the FX market. Such artificial rate rise might also lead to local problems in its (i.e. the Swiss) Economy.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2011/09/swiss-franc-first-thoughts-following.html

Euro Strength Seen by Stiglitz Removing Greek Debt

Rather than a euro failure, an orderly Greek exit from the currency has Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Nomura Holdings Inc. chief strategist Jens Nordvig predicting a stronger and more stable monetary union.

While Societe Generale SA suggests that the euro might break up because of the cost of Greece’s departure, the nation accounts for just 2.3 percent of the 17-nation trading bloc’s gross domestic product. It also has 356 billion euros (0 billion), or 4.3 percent of the region’s total debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The area’s trade deficit last year would have been a surplus without its weakest member, according to European Union data.

Foreign-exchange markets display little evidence of the euro being dismembered. The currency trades 53 percent above its record low of 82.30 U.S. cents in October 2000. Bond yields of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany and the Netherlands have fallen to record lows, as investor demand for their debt increases. Removing Greece from the euro would reduce the bloc’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 85.5 percent from 87.3 percent.

Source | Forex News Paper | http://forexnewspaper.blogspot.com/2012/06/euro-strength-seen-by-stiglitz-removing.html

Dollar Falls Toward Seven-Week Low Against Euro on Stock Rally

July 28 -- The dollar fell toward its lowest level in seven weeks against the euro as Asian stocks extended a global rally, adding to evidence investors are shifting to higher-yielding assets.
The Australian dollar rose for a third day against the greenback after the Reserve Bank of Australia said the South Pacific nation’s economy may rebound faster than it forecast six months ago. The euro approached a three-week high against the yen after Deutsche Bank AG said second-quarter profit rose 68 percent, beating analysts’ estimates, on increased revenue from trading bonds and stocks.
“Rising share prices will make it easier for investors to take more risks,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, manager of the foreign-exchange margin trading department in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd. “Under such circumstances, the dollar and the yen will weaken, especially against the currencies of resource-rich nations and emerging markets.”
The dollar declined to .4275 per euro as of 7:05 a.m. in London from .4232 in New York yesterday, when it touched .4298, the lowest level since June 3. The U.S. currency was at 95.13 yen from 95.18 yen.
The euro rose to 135.80 yen from 135.48 yen yesterday, when it reached 136.10 yen, the strongest since July 2. The U.S. dollar fell to as low as C.0761 today, its weakest versus Canada’s dollar since Oct. 3.
MSCI’s Asia Pacific index of regional shares rose for an 11th day, the longest winning streak since January 2004, adding to evidence investor risk-appetite is increasing. The index climbed 0.9 percent today.
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index was near the lowest level this year before a report that economists said will show U.S. home prices fell at a slower pace in May, indicating that the American economy is recovering and demand for safe haven currencies will fall.
The S&P/Case Shiller index of 20 major metropolitan areas, scheduled for release today, will show property values fell 17.9 percent in May from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The measure was down 18.1 percent in the 12 months ended April.
The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against currencies including the yen, pound and Swedish krona, was at 78.476 from 78.626 yesterday, near this year’s low of 78.334 on June 2
The Australian dollar climbed after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said it appears “that the downturn we are having may turn out not to be one of the more serious ones of the postwar era, in contrast to the experiences of so many other countries.”
Upside Risks
“We can much more easily imagine upside risks to the outlook, to balance out the downside ones, than was the case six month ago,” the Reserve Bank chief said in Sydney today.
Stevens left the benchmark lending rate at 3 percent on July 7 for a third month amid signs the lowest borrowing costs in half a century and government spending helped the nation skirt a recession.
“With Australia’s economy apparently doing well, there may be no more scope for interest-rate cuts,” said Masashi Kurabe, head of currency sales and trading in Hong Kong at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank. “Higher-yielding currencies such as Australia’s dollar will likely be popular, with demand from people in countries with low yields such as Japan.”
Benchmark interest rates of 8.75 percent in Brazil and 0.25 percent in Sweden compare with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S.
The Australian dollar rose to 83.02 U.S. cents from 82.27 cents yesterday, and advanced to 78.97 yen from 78.31 yen.
Deutsche Earnings
The euro gained for a fourth day against the yen after Germany’s largest bank said in a statement today net income rose to 1.09 billion euros (.55 billion), or 1.64 euros a share, from 649 million euros, or 1.27 euros, a year earlier. Deutsche Bank’s earnings exceeded the 944 million-euro median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed.
“The bank’s results were better than expected,” said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. “The latest upmove in the euro could be due to this.”
Deutsche Bank’s Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said the banking industry and financial markets stabilized in the quarter, propelling a fourfold gain in income from debt sales and an improvement in equity trading.
Losses in the yen against the dollar were tempered on speculation Japanese exporters are taking advantage of the currency’s drop in the past week to repatriate earnings from overseas assets before the month-end.
Japanese Exporters
“Exporters are prone to buy the yen, given that the end of the month is near,” said Yuji Saito, head of the foreign- exchange group in Tokyo at Societe Generale, France’s third- largest bank.
Japanese companies forecast the yen would average 94.85 per dollar in the 12 months to March 2010, according to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey released July 1.
Adding to pressure on the dollar, China’s Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said on the first day of bilateral talks with U.S. officials that his government remains “concerned” about the value of its U.S. assets.
Zhu’s remarks come after repeated public assurances by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the U.S. is committed to reining in a record budget deficit once an economic recovery is secured. China is the biggest foreign investor in U.S. government debt, and any decline in demand could push up borrowing costs.
“China has massive holdings of Treasuries, so it is obviously worried,” said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan’s largest currency broker. “Any diversification away from the dollar could be gradual, and the greenback may weaken a bit.”

Source | Forex News | http://forexnews-4all.blogspot.com/2009/07/dollar-falls-toward-seven-week-low.html

FOREXTOTALNEWS: Though flu concerns remain, Euro is up against Dollar, Yen

On Wednesday Asian market Euro is raising both against the dollar and the yen, as officials made hints that low interest rates may soon end in the European zone.

And though the euro is usually sold out, when finance markets are under stress, this time it stood in recent ranges because of the still remaining flu concerns. The recent reports show more cases of suspected swine flu in both New Zealand and South Korea.

Source | Forex Update | http://adeel-forex-update.blogspot.com/2009/08/forextotalnews-though-flu-concerns.html

Euro Rises to Two-Week High on Spain Bailout Request

The euro rose against most of its major counterparts after European governments agreed to provide Spain with a bailout loan.

The 17-nation currency climbed to a two-week high after Spain asked for as much as 100 billion euros (6 billion) to save its banking system, making it the fourth member in the currency bloc to seek a rescue. The dollar and yen fell on decreased demand for refuge assets as Asian shares rallied.

The euro reached .2671, the highest since May 23, before trading at .2631 as of 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo, 0.9 percent higher than the June 8 close in New York. It jumped 1.1 percent to 100.59 yen. The dollar added 0.2 percent to 79.64 yen.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares advanced 1.8 percent.

Seven months after winning a landslide victory, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was forced to abandon his bid to recapitalize banks without external help. Foreign investors had cut holdings of the nation’s debt amid concern banks’ bad loans may overwhelm public finances, driving borrowing costs to near euro-era records.

Futures traders had increased their bearish bets on the euro to an unprecedented level, according to figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro, so-called net shorts, compared with those on a gain was 214,418 on June 5, the most on record going back to 1999.

“The growth outlook for most of the euro area is already bleak,” Guillermo Felices, head of European currency strategy in London at Barclays Plc, and Yuki Sakasai, a New York-based currency strategist, wrote in a research note. “One way to spur growth would be the ECB easing to weaken the euro. Otherwise, without growth, the euro will remain under pressure.”

Source | Forex News Paper | http://forexnewspaper.blogspot.com/2012/06/euro-rises-to-two-week-high-on-spain.html

Euro Weakens as Investors Sell to Buy Higher-Yield Assets

The euro fell to a two-year low versus the dollar and weakened against all of its 16 most-traded peers as traders used the shared currency to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets.

The 17-nation currency dropped to the weakest on record versus Australia’s dollar five days after the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate to an all-time low 0.75 percent. Sweden’s krona reached its strongest against the euro since 2000 as industrial production fell less than forecast, and Mexico’s peso gained versus the dollar on bets Europe’s crisis will ease.

“The euro is now the main funding currency, and everyone wants to be short euro,” said Sebastian Galy, a senior foreign- exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York. “The dollar is no longer the main funding currency.” A short position is a wager a currency will decline in value.

The euro depreciated as much as 0.6 percent to .2235, the lowest since July 2010, before trading at .2255 at 1:36 p.m. New York time, down 0.5 percent. The common currency declined 0.6 percent to 97.38 yen and touched 97.23 yen, the weakest since June 5. The yen gained 0.1 percent to 79.47 per dollar.

Australia’s dollar climbed 0.5 percent to A.2002 per euro and touched A.1988. The Aussie was little changed at .0209 and slipped 0.1 percent to 81.12 yen.
Investors sell currencies of nations with low borrowing costs to purchase those with higher yields in the carry trade. Japan’s yen and the U.S. dollar are traditional funding currencies because the nation’s central banks are holding interest rates at almost zero. The Reserve of Australia’s cash rate target is 3.5 percent.

Source | Forex News Paper | http://forexnewspaper.blogspot.com/2012/07/euro-weakens-as-investors-sell-to-buy.html

Yen Gains to Six-Week High Versus Euro on Growth Outlook

The yen climbed to the strongest level in almost six weeks against the euro and gained versus all its most-traded counterparts as signs global growth is slowing underpinned demand for the relative safety of the currency.

The dollar rose versus all its major peers except the yen after South Korea unexpectedly lowered interest rates, while the euro slid below .22 for the first time since July 2010. The Bank of Japan (8301) refrained from expanding stimulus, adding to haven demand. China releases quarterly gross domestic product data today. Australia’s dollar slid after employers cut jobs.

“The Bank of Japan monetary-policy decision didn’t lead to any significant new expansion in the BOJ balance sheet or something the market would consider more aggressive quantitative easing,” Shahab Jalinoos, a Stamford, Connecticut-based senior currency strategist at UBS AG, said in a telephone interview. “The market was disappointed, and the yen clawed back some recent losses.”

The yen gained 0.9 percent to 96.72 per euro at 1:15 p.m. New York time after appreciating earlier to 96.43, the strongest level since June 1. Japan’s currency advanced 0.6 percent to 79.30 per dollar. The euro weakened 0.4 percent to .2196 after sliding to as low as .2167.

Japan’s currency rose versus the dollar as the extra yield investors receive for investing in two-year U.S. Treasuries versus comparable Japanese government bonds fell to the lowest in a month, limiting dollar-denominated assets’ appeal. The yield spread was 16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point.

Source | Forex News Paper | http://forexnewspaper.blogspot.com/2012/07/yen-gains-to-six-week-high-versus-euro.html

The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) Euro Currency Unit

On January 1, 1999, eleven of the countries in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) decided to give up their own currencies and adopt the Euro (EUR) currency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. The Vatican City also participated in that changeover. Greece followed suit on January 1, 2001, Slovenia on January 1 2007, Malta and Cyprus on January 1, 2008, and Slovakia on January 1, 2009.

It is worth noting that any place that previously used one or more of the currencies listed below has now also adopted the Euro. This applies to the Principality of Andorra, the Principality of Monaco, and the Republic of San Marino. This of course applies automatically to any territories, departments, possessions, or collectivities of Euro-zone countries, such as the Azores, Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Europa Island, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Juan de Nova, the Madeira Islands, Martinique, Mayotte, Reunion, Saint-Martin, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, to name just a few.

Euro bank notes and coins began circulating in the above countries on January 1, 2002. At that time, all transactions in those countries were valued in Euro, and the "old" notes and coins of these countries were gradually withdrawn from circulation. The precise dates that each "old" currency ceased being legal tender are noted in the table below.

For convenience, and because their values are now irrevocably set against the Euro as listed above, the XE.com Universal Currency Converter will continue to support these units even after their withdrawal from circulation. In addition, most outgoing Euro currencies will still be physically convertible at special locations for a period of several years. For details, refer to the official Euro site as listed in the Relevant Links section below.

A note about spelling and capitalization: the official spelling of the EUR currency unit in the English language is "euro", with a lower case "e". However, the overwhelmingly prevailing industry practise to spell it "Euro", with a capital "E". Since other currency names are capitalized in general use, doing so helps differentiate the noun "Euro", meaning EUR currency, from the more general adjective "euro", meaning anything even remotely having to do with Europe. This is particularly pervasive in marketing and advertising, where it is common to read statements like, "Try new Goop™ hair gel with genuine euro style and hold!" Nevertheless, this linguistic nuance is very subtle, even for native English speakers. it is also important to note that many languages have different official spellings of the name or EUR unit, which also may or may not coincide with general use.

For more information on the EUR, we encourage you to visit the Websites listed below, particularly the official one. These sites include recent news on the Euro as well as issues like implementation, spelling, legislation, and many more.

Euro Dollar analysis

Let's look at the bigger picture ...
1) We get a clear break out (out of that LT downtrend)
2) We find a resistance @ A
3) Price did NOT get above A, meaning ? We got a clear lower high
4) We are now facing another lower high, ready to test that key support level next week.

Channel pattern or clear reversal ? We shall soon find out ...
Any MAJOR key news coming from the ECB next week ????