Japanese Yen (Jpy) monthly forecast from 14/July/10

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Jpy is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Jpy/Usd	0.0113	0.0108	0.0120
Jpy/Aud	0.0128	0.0120	0.0140
Jpy/Chf	0.0119	0.0119	0.0120
Jpy/Inr	0.5282	0.5163	0.5488
Jpy/Cny	0.0767	0.0751	0.0792
Jpy/Brl	0.0199	0.0197	0.0203
Jpy/Gbp	0.0074	0.0070	0.0081
Jpy/Nzd	0.0157	0.0147	0.0172
Jpy/Cad	0.0117	0.0114	0.0122
Jpy/Zar	0.0852	0.0840	0.0885
Jpy/Eur	0.0089	0.0084	0.0096

Or in a more familiar 'inverted format' , the above values become:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Usd/Jpy	88.3750	82.1254	92.8253
Aud/Jpy	78.0174	70.6950	83.7842
Chf/Jpy	83.8075	81.8321	84.4761
Jpy/Inr	0.5282	0.5140	0.5532
Cny/Jpy	13.0404	12.4797	13.3607
Brl/Jpy	50.2188	48.6023	50.7614
Gbp/Jpy	134.8868	122.6276	143.6455
Nzd/Jpy	63.8863	57.5257	68.6363
Cad/Jpy	85.6596	81.1355	88.7346
Zar/Jpy	11.7342	11.3108	11.9756
Eur/Jpy	112.7488	103.1692	120.0370

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts

The Yen does not have a lot of strengthening/upside remaining (versus the Usd). It could therefore, in the near future, weaken from its current levels. Since the pair is inverted weakening means the Usd/Jpy value should go towards the 90 level.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/japanese-yen-jpy-monthly-forecast-from.html

European currency falls to 1-week low against Japanese yen, Friday, September 26, 2008 6:09:45 AM

Extending Asian session downtrend, the European currency declined to 1-week low against the Japanese yen and a 3-day low versus the Swiss franc during early European deals on Friday. The euro also remained down against the currencies of US and UK.

In economic news, Germany`s import price inflation remained stable in August at its highest level in nearly eight years on higher energy prices.

The Federal Statistical Office said today that the import price index rose 9.3% year-on-year in August, marking the same pace as in July, while quicker than the 8.9% increase in June. Meanwhile, economists had forecast the rate to ease to 9.1%. The August rate was the highest since November 2000. In the same period last year, prices were down 0.6%.

The French economy contracted 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, confirmed the initial estimate, a final report from the statistical office INSEE revealed today. The economy had expanded 0.4% in the first quarter.

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, or ECB and the Swiss National Bank or SNB revealed today that they are introducing operations to provide U.S. dollar liquidity with a one-week maturity using their reciprocal currency arrangements or swap lines.

The Federal Open Market Committee authorized a billion increase in its temporary swap facility with the ECB and a billion increase in its facility with the SNB. According to the Fed, these expanded facilities will now support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to 0 billion by the ECB and up to billion by the SNB.

Against the US dollar, the European currency showed weakness during early deals on Friday. At 3:55 am ET, the euro-dollar pair touched a low of 1.4568, compared to 1.4610 hit late New York Thursday. The pair is now worth 1.4578.

The European currency that closed Thursday`s North American session at 0.7954 against the British pound edged down to 0.7940 at 5:05 am ET Friday.

The Bank of England said today that it will increase the term of its existing operations to lend US dollar funds against collateral eligible in short-term repos and US Treasuries.

Alongside an operation to lend funds overnight, the central bank will lend US billion of funds for one week today. The Bank of England`s overnight dollar repo operations will be US billion on Friday.

Against the Swiss franc, the single currency edged lower during Friday`s early deals. At 3:30 am ET the euro-franc pair slipped to a 3-day low of 1.5880, compared to 1.5937 hit late New York Thursday. The pair is currently quoted at 1.5891.

The Swiss leading indicator in September declined further to 0.62 points from a revised 0.73 points in August, the KOF Economic Institute said today. August`s reading was upwardly revised from 0.68. Economists were looking for a reading of 0.54 for September.

The euro that closed Thursday`s New York deals at 155.70 against the Japanese yen declined to a 1-week low of 153.50 at 3:55 am ET Friday. The euro-yen pair is currently trading at 153.86.

Core inflation in Japan rose 2.4 percent on year in August, in line with analyst expectations, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said today. It also held steady from the July figure, equaling an 11-year high. Overall nationwide CPI was up an annual 2.1 percent, matching forecasts after a 2.3 percent gain on year in the previous month. Overall inflation gained o.3 percent on month.

Across the Atlantic, the US final second quarter GDP, personal consumption expenditure and the University of Michigan`s confidence survey are scheduled for release later in the New York session.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/european-currency-falls-to-1-week-low.html

British Pound Extends Gains Against U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen

July 28 -- The pound extended gains against the dollar and the yen.
The British currency rose 0.3 percent to .6540 as of 7:09 a.m. in London. Against the yen, the pound advanced 0.3 percent to 157.33.

Source | Forex News | http://forexnews-4all.blogspot.com/2009/07/british-pound-extends-gains-against-us.html

Japanese yen pares gains against most majors, Friday, September 26, 2008 12:12:14 PM

The Japanese currency pared early gains against most of its major counterparts during New York mid-day trading on Friday.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said that core inflation in Japan increased 2.4 percent on year in August, in line with analyst expectations. It also held steady from the July figure, equaling an 11-year high.

Overall nationwide CPI was up an annual 2.1 percent, matching forecasts after a 2.3 percent gain on year in the previous month. Overall inflation gained 0.3 percent on month.

After hitting an 8-day high of 105.05 by about 8:35 am ET, the yen reversed its direction against the US dollar in New York mid-day deals today. Currently, the pair is worth 106.08.

The U.S. Commerce Department revealed that Gross Domestic Product grew at a rate of 2.8 percent in the April-to-June period. This was slower than the 3.3 percent pace that was reported last month.

The Japanese currency trended down against the euro and the British pound in New York morning deals from previous session`s uptrend. As of now, the yen is trading at 154.77 against the euro and 195.14 versus the pound, compared to early 1-week highs of 153.50 and 193.22, respectively.

Against the Swiss franc, the yen weakened to 97.76 by about 10:00 am ET from last session`s 4-day high of 96.63 today. Presently, the franc-yen pair is trading near 97.40.

Source | Forex News | http://forexfx-news.blogspot.com/2008/09/japanese-yen-pares-gains-against-most.html

EUR to Benefit from American and Japanese Bank Moves?

With rising fears about additional monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, speculators have begun to exit many of their USD positions in favor of higher yielding assets. Bank intervention in Japan also has many investors weary of entering yen positions in the near future, but poor fundamentals out of Europe have traders just as concerned about their investments in the euro zone, but have the added benefit of less government tinkering. The EUR's best bet for the moment could be to lie low and reap the benefits of a rapidly dropping USD and JPY.




USD - USD Stable despite Monetary Easing Speculations

The US dollar has been holding steady against most of its currency rivals, despite fundamentals showing a shift away from the safety of the greenback. A positive jobs report pushed the USD/CAD towards 1.0380, while conflicting reports out of Europe have the EUR/USD stalling at 1.3340 and the GBP/USD appearing to consolidate just below 1.5700.

With rising fears about further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, speculators have begun to exit many of their USD positions in favor of higher yielding assets. A narrowing of the yield gap between the US and Japanese bonds also put pressure on the greenback as traders exited their carry trades, adding downward momentum to the dollar.

Today's durable goods orders out of the United States have a chance to add modest support to the USD if the figure is in line, or above, expectations. Rising durable goods orders is representative of increased demand for US manufacturing goods and services, which has a residual effect across the American economy.

EUR - EUR Gaining Amid Global Monetary Changes

The euro's rise continued in today's Asian trading sessions, but some analysts have begun to anticipate a softening of the EUR in the hours ahead. The EUR/USD saw a healthy 60 pip gain since the opening of the Asian session, currently trading at 1.3350. The EUR/GBP also rose modestly, sitting just above 0.8505.

Bank intervention in Japan has many investors weary of entering yen positions in the near future, but poor fundamentals out of Europe have traders just as concerned about their investments in the euro zone. Today's German Ifo Business Climate report could show a minor decline in economic sentiment in the region's largest economy. However, most analysts do not expect the Ifo report to carry much weight given the load of speculation emerging from the US and Japan.

With Japanese bank interventions and potential monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, the euro's best chances of weathering the storm may be to lie low and do what it can to downplay its negative data releases. No news may be the best news for the euro zone's single currency for the moment.

JPY - JPY on Shaky Ground; Traders Awaiting Second Wave of Bank Intervention

The Japanese yen slumped against the US dollar and the EUR in today's early trading on speculation Japan is selling its currency after intervening in the market last week. The yen slid 1% to 85.22 per dollar from 84.38 in New York yesterday, however, it since stabilized back around .

Japan has yet to express satisfaction at the current value of its currency. This has led many speculators to anticipate a second wave of bank intervention sometime in the near future. The speculation alone has helped drop the yen against many of its currency counterparts. But should the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervene in the market once more, traders are likely to see a very sharp drop in the value of the yen, primarily against the US dollar.

With no news expected out of Japan before the weekend's close, European and American reports will likely control today's movements, setting the pace for early next week. Traders would be wise to follow today's two leading events, the German Ifo Business Climate and the US Core Durable Goods Orders report.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Fundamentals Could Be Weaker than Many Expected

The price of Crude Oil continues to float between .50 and .50 as markets digest the impact of Japan's bank interventions and speculation about further monetary easing in the United States. The summer driving season in Europe and America did little to support oil prices this year. Fundamentals remain weak for Crude Oil, and few expect growth levels to return to pre-2007 levels anytime soon.

With the current price of Crude Oil trading just below .00 a barrel, there appears to be technical pressures mounting to push the price higher in today's trading. Retreating optimism in Europe and a possible boost to American manufacturing growth both provide fundamental support to oil prices, but the specter of additional quantitative easing in the United States remains overhead.

Traders appear weary of purchasing the dollar, and the expected result should be a rise in oil prices. On the contrary, though, the support currently being experienced seems softer than expected and has many analysts concerned that fundamentals are in fact weaker than most have forecast.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The price of this pair has been floating in the over-bought territory on the daily RSI for some time now, suggesting strong downward pressure. A fresh bearish cross on the daily Stochastic (slow) supports this notion. As the price tests an important psychological barrier near 1.3350, going short may be a wise tactic for fast profits today.

GBP/USD

The recent uptick on this currency pair has just pushed the price into the over-bought territory on the daily RSI, suggesting an increase in downward pressure today. The price has also recently turned downward and exited the over-bought territory on the weekly RSI, suggesting that a cascading downward movement may have already been initiated on a larger time-scale. Going short may turn out to be the preferred strategy before the weekend's close.

USD/JPY

The price on the USD/JPY has recently shifted into an upward direction on the weekly RSI, also just exiting the over-sold territory, suggesting a rise in upward momentum. With impending bullish crosses on the daily and weekly MACDs, it may turn out that bullishness is on the way. Traders may want to take advantage of this movement by entering long positions on this pair throughout the day.

USD/CHF

This pair continues to decline, pushing the price into the over-sold region on the daily RSI, and even deeper into the weekly RSI, indicating that an upward correction is expected. An impending bullish cross on the daily Stochastic (slow) supports this notion. Going long may not be a bad idea.

CHF/JPY

The movements of this pair seem to suggest that the price has reached a recent high which is unsupported. The 4-hour, daily and weekly RSI show the price as over-bought, while the daily Stochastic (slow) and MACD have impending bearish crosses. Forex traders may want to evaluate their positions on this pair, especially since it appears that a bearish correction may be imminent. Going short on this pair could turn out to be an excellent gamble before the weekend's close.

Source | 24/7 UP To Date Forex News - Foreign Exchange Market | http://247forexnews.blogspot.com/2010/11/eur-to-benefit-from-american-and.html