Introducing: USD/CAD H4,D1,W1 and Monthly Elliott Wave Count

Right now I'm stalking the end of the great green triangle breakout.

It looks like the current wave to the downside (A) is just the first leg of larger impulsive move and now  it is in corrective cycle. First leg of this cycle has been made as impulsive (but often including diagonals) wave 1 or A. Now the next step is to finish wave B in three waves of WXY progress before price will rebound and regain the momentum to the upside.

Levels to buy the USD/CAD in anticipation of impulsive momentum rebound are on chart.

Take care,
Seb

Source | Elliott Wave NYSE And Forex Blog | http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2012/12/introducing-usdcad-h4d1w1-and-monthly.html

Indian Rupee (Inr) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Inr is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Inr/Usd	0.0214	0.0210	0.0220
Inr/Aud	0.0243	0.0233	0.0255
Inr/Chf	0.0226	0.0218	0.0231
Inr/Cny	0.1452	0.1443	0.1455
Inr/Jpy	1.8932	1.8222	1.9369
Inr/Brl	0.0377	0.0369	0.0382
Inr/Gbp	0.0140	0.0135	0.0147
Inr/Nzd	0.0296	0.0285	0.0313
Inr/Cad	0.0221	0.0220	0.0223
Inr/Zar	0.1613	0.1613	0.1626
Inr/Eur	0.0168	0.0162	0.0175

 Or in a more familiar 'inverted' format, the above values become:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Usd/Inr	46.6800	45.4333	47.7152
Aud/Inr	41.2091	39.1098	43.0678
Chf/Inr	44.2674	43.4234	45.2711
Cny/Inr	6.8880	6.8678	6.9040
Inr/Jpy	1.8932	1.8076	1.9454
Brl/Inr	26.5257	26.0930	26.8877
Gbp/Inr	71.2477	67.8399	73.8384
Nzd/Inr	33.7450	31.8243	35.2813
Cad/Inr	45.2457	44.8857	45.6124
Zar/Inr	6.1981	6.1558	6.2573
Eur/Inr	59.5543	57.0751	61.7029

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts

The Indian Rupee is likely to maintain its 'middle-of-the-range' valuation (i.e. hover around its current value with respect to the US dollar).

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/indian-rupee-inr-monthly-forecast-from.html

Japanese Yen (Jpy) monthly forecast from 14/July/10

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Jpy is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Jpy/Usd	0.0113	0.0108	0.0120
Jpy/Aud	0.0128	0.0120	0.0140
Jpy/Chf	0.0119	0.0119	0.0120
Jpy/Inr	0.5282	0.5163	0.5488
Jpy/Cny	0.0767	0.0751	0.0792
Jpy/Brl	0.0199	0.0197	0.0203
Jpy/Gbp	0.0074	0.0070	0.0081
Jpy/Nzd	0.0157	0.0147	0.0172
Jpy/Cad	0.0117	0.0114	0.0122
Jpy/Zar	0.0852	0.0840	0.0885
Jpy/Eur	0.0089	0.0084	0.0096

Or in a more familiar 'inverted format' , the above values become:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Usd/Jpy	88.3750	82.1254	92.8253
Aud/Jpy	78.0174	70.6950	83.7842
Chf/Jpy	83.8075	81.8321	84.4761
Jpy/Inr	0.5282	0.5140	0.5532
Cny/Jpy	13.0404	12.4797	13.3607
Brl/Jpy	50.2188	48.6023	50.7614
Gbp/Jpy	134.8868	122.6276	143.6455
Nzd/Jpy	63.8863	57.5257	68.6363
Cad/Jpy	85.6596	81.1355	88.7346
Zar/Jpy	11.7342	11.3108	11.9756
Eur/Jpy	112.7488	103.1692	120.0370

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts

The Yen does not have a lot of strengthening/upside remaining (versus the Usd). It could therefore, in the near future, weaken from its current levels. Since the pair is inverted weakening means the Usd/Jpy value should go towards the 90 level.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/japanese-yen-jpy-monthly-forecast-from.html

Euro (Eur) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Eur is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Eur/Usd	1.2758	1.2528	1.2935
Eur/Aud	1.4452	1.4322	1.4537
Eur/Chf	1.3453	1.2467	1.4215
Eur/Inr	59.5543	57.0685	61.5783
Eur/Cny	8.6461	8.2335	8.9578
Eur/Jpy	112.7488	103.9878	119.2708
Eur/Brl	2.2452	2.1071	2.3520
Eur/Gbp	0.8359	0.8332	0.8378
Eur/Nzd	1.7648	1.7521	1.7858
Eur/Cad	1.3162	1.2703	1.3559
Eur/Zar	9.6086	9.2051	10.0129

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The recent successful sale of the Greek debt shows that the Euro has come out of its recent 'extreme' low levels due to the threat of a split. Some still believe that germany might pull out at sometime in the future if the debt fears spread to other southern European countries and this might leave the Euro's valuation in an unpredictable territory.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/euro-eur-monthly-forecast-from-14july10.html

Australian Dollar (Aud) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Aud is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Aud/Usd	0.8828	0.8618	0.9032
Aud/Chf	0.9309	0.8576	0.9925
Aud/Inr	41.2091	39.2580	42.9954
Aud/Cny	5.9827	5.6639	6.2546
Aud/Jpy	78.0174	71.5341	83.2777
Aud/Brl	1.5536	1.4495	1.6422
Aud/Gbp	0.5784	0.5763	0.5818
Aud/Nzd	1.2212	1.2233	1.2284
Aud/Cad	0.9108	0.8739	0.9467
Aud/Zar	6.6487	6.3323	6.9912
Aud/Eur	0.6920	0.6879	0.6982

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The macroeconomic indicators from Australia, such as the employment data,  continue to impress and perhaps as a result the Aud has moved into being slightly overvalued.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/australian-dollar-aud-monthly-forecast.html

Brazilian Real (Brl) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Brl is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Brl/Usd	0.5682	0.5500	0.5946
Brl/Aud	0.6437	0.6089	0.6899
Brl/Chf	0.5992	0.5917	0.6044
Brl/Inr	26.5257	26.1815	27.0837
Brl/Cny	3.8510	3.8086	3.9075
Brl/Jpy	50.2188	49.3508	50.7110
Brl/Gbp	0.3723	0.3543	0.3976
Brl/Nzd	0.7861	0.7449	0.8475
Brl/Cad	0.5863	0.5765	0.6029
Brl/Zar	4.2797	4.2572	4.3686
Brl/Eur	0.4454	0.4252	0.4746

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The Real seems to be slightly overvalued - by about 200 pips - at current pricing.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/brazilian-real-brl-monthly-forecast.html

Swiss Franc (Chf) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Chf is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Chf/Usd	0.9483	0.9100	1.0049
Chf/Aud	1.0742	1.0075	1.1660
Chf/Inr	44.2674	43.3188	45.7765
Chf/Cny	6.4267	6.3016	6.6043
Chf/Jpy	83.8075	83.4118	83.9040
Chf/Brl	1.6688	1.6546	1.6902
Chf/Gbp	0.6213	0.5861	0.6720
Chf/Nzd	1.3118	1.2325	1.4324
Chf/Cad	0.9784	0.9538	1.0190
Chf/Zar	7.1422	7.0438	7.3837
Chf/Eur	0.7433	0.7035	0.8021

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The Swiss France - like a few other currencies versus the US dollar - seems to be overvalued by about 150 to 200 pips.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/swiss-franc-chf-monthly-forecast-from.html

Chinese Yuan (Cny) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Cny is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Cny/Usd	0.1476	0.1444	0.1522
Cny/Aud	0.1671	0.1599	0.1766
Cny/Chf	0.1556	0.1514	0.1587
Cny/Inr	6.8880	6.8743	6.9313
Cny/Jpy	13.0404	12.6299	13.3147
Cny/Brl	0.2597	0.2559	0.2626
Cny/Gbp	0.0967	0.0930	0.1018
Cny/Nzd	0.2041	0.1956	0.2169
Cny/Cad	0.1522	0.1514	0.1543
Cny/Zar	1.1113	1.1178	1.1180
Cny/Eur	0.1157	0.1116	0.1215

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
No sign yet of the Yuan strengthening. Seems like a safe bet to say that Cny's value will remain fairly constant.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/chinese-yuan-cny-monthly-forecast-from.html

Canadian Dollar (Cad) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Cad is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Cad/Usd	0.9693	0.9540	0.9862
Cad/Aud	1.0980	1.0563	1.1443
Cad/Chf	1.0221	0.9814	1.0484
Cad/Inr	45.2457	44.9240	45.4167
Cad/Cny	6.5688	6.4813	6.6068
Cad/Jpy	85.6596	81.8585	87.9675
Cad/Brl	1.7057	1.6587	1.7347
Cad/Gbp	0.6350	0.6145	0.6595
Cad/Nzd	1.3408	1.2922	1.4057
Cad/Zar	7.3000	7.2462	7.3850
Cad/Eur	0.7597	0.7375	0.7872

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The Canadian Dollar could weaken along with the other commodity currencies (such as the Nzd, Aud and Zar) if the market sentiment were to turn. All alternatives are looking overvalued not by much, but about 200 pips.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/canadian-dollar-cad-monthly-forecast.html

Pound Sterling (Gbp) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Gbp is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Gbp/Usd	1.5263	1.4954	1.5525
Gbp/Aud	1.7289	1.7189	1.7352
Gbp/Chf	1.6095	1.4881	1.7061
Gbp/Inr	71.2477	68.1197	73.9051
Gbp/Cny	10.3437	9.8278	10.7510
Gbp/Jpy	134.8868	124.1247	143.1467
Gbp/Brl	2.6860	2.5152	2.8228
Gbp/Nzd	2.1114	2.1028	2.1316
Gbp/Cad	1.5747	1.5163	1.6273
Gbp/Zar	11.4952	10.9876	12.0173
Gbp/Eur	1.1963	1.1936	1.2002

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts

Pound's current valuation shows that it is fairly valued.

With the current Government's plan to get the budget defict down to nearly 1% over the course of their current term, the markets and the rating agencies have begun to look at the Pound favourably. With the uncertain market dynamics moving from looking at dangers faced by the US dollar on one hand and the Euro on the other, the Pound could benefit as an alternative investment currency.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/pound-streling-gbp-monthly-forecast.html

New Zealand Dollar (Nzd) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Nzd is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Nzd/Usd	0.7229	0.7016	0.7383
Nzd/Aud	0.8189	0.8140	0.8174
Nzd/Chf	0.7623	0.6981	0.8113
Nzd/Inr	33.7450	31.9574	35.1459
Nzd/Cny	4.8991	4.6106	5.1127
Nzd/Jpy	63.8863	58.2314	68.0741
Nzd/Brl	1.2722	1.1799	1.3424
Nzd/Gbp	0.4736	0.4691	0.4756
Nzd/Cad	0.7458	0.7114	0.7739
Nzd/Zar	5.4444	5.1547	5.7149
Nzd/Eur	0.5666	0.5600	0.5708

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The New Zealand Dollar is currently slightly overvalued.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/new-zealand-dollar-nzd-monthly-forecast.html

US Dollar (Usd) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

The extreme market fear seems to have receded and the other currencies have gaind over the past month versus the Usd. Also analysis of moving correlations seems to suggest that some currencies (such as the Pound0 seem to hold their value despite any daily downturn in the equity / risk markets.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Usd/Aud	1.1328	1.1079	1.1617
Usd/Chf	1.0545	1.0036	1.0988
Usd/Inr	46.6800	45.4333	47.7152
Usd/Cny	6.7770	6.5807	6.9477
Usd/Jpy	88.3750	82.1254	92.8253
Usd/Brl	1.7598	1.6897	1.8287
Usd/Gbp	0.6552	0.6462	0.6697
Usd/Nzd	1.3833	1.3524	1.4276
Usd/Cad	1.0317	1.0122	1.0461
Usd/Zar	7.5314	7.2608	7.7512
Usd/Eur	0.7838	0.7733	0.7960

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/us-dollar-usd-monthly-forecast-from.html

South African Rand (Zar) monthly forecast from 14/July/10.

Prediction Date: 14-Jul-2010 . Forecast confidence level = 80 percent.
1 Zar is likely to buy:

Currency	current_value	minimum	maximum
Zar/Usd	0.1328	0.1292	0.1361
Zar/Aud	0.1504	0.1430	0.1579
Zar/Chf	0.1400	0.1354	0.1420
Zar/Inr	6.1981	6.1499	6.1997
Zar/Cny	0.8998	0.8944	0.8946
Zar/Jpy	11.7342	11.2967	11.9117
Zar/Brl	0.2337	0.2289	0.2349
Zar/Gbp	0.0870	0.0832	0.0910
Zar/Nzd	0.1837	0.1750	0.1940
Zar/Cad	0.1370	0.1354	0.1380
Zar/Eur	0.1041	0.0999	0.1086

Technical Levels

The plot below shows the likely resistance and support levels. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

Forecast Histogram

The plot below shows the likely distribution of values over the forecast period. The current value, at the time the forecast was made, is shown by the red line.

My Thoughts
The Rand's appreciation from its current valuation of 7.5 (versus the Usd), is going to be difficult. The Rand looks to be overvalued by about 300 pips.

Source | The Currency Forecasting Blog (CFB) | http://currency-forecasting.blogspot.com/2010/07/south-african-rand-zar-monthly-forecast.html